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2020/21 Premier League - Race For Europe


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4 hours ago, Steve Bruce Almighty said:

Probably worth £30-50m in prize, tv and gate revenue. Wasn't it for Man Utd? Probably much needed after the last year of revenue collapse.

That was a run to the final, with gates, and TV on top (united obviously will get the most views.) and I believe it was closer to 30 than 50;

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43 minutes ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

That was a run to the final, with gates, and TV on top (united obviously will get the most views.) and I believe it was closer to 30 than 50;

Liverpool are most watched team in England at the moment. Whether that will be the same for a Europa League group stage tie against a ski resort I don't know 

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It's one of those things where my thoughts on if we'll do it change very frequently because I think we sit very much on the borderline of it. Chelsea for me are going to finish the strongest in the league as they have the squad and now a manager who knows how to use it. As stated, I think they come 2nd.

Manchester United just never fully convince me, I don't think they're any good against a low block, but I think they have enough quality to not be in any serious danger of missing out.

What changed for me this weekend was the fact we won a game I just think in similar circumstances we'd have folded last season. After an absolutely piss poor first half we found it within ourselves to turn the game on its head and get it won and I just don't think we'd have done that last year. It's a sign that we're not crumbling under the pressure as such. We turned our game around and then Liverpool went and lost to Fulham - to me now if Liverpool catch us it means we've blown it. They're well off us now and don't show any signs of catching up.

Then you have West Ham. Pesky West Ham. I'd like to see them make it with us but I just can't see it, and they're going to become our rivals in this. They need to be treated seriously. Tottenham worry me a bit and we play them on the final day. We could end up with another shootout on the final day and I don't relish the prospect. Everton aren't really going away either - but I think if they haven't caught us after the next three games we'll be fine with them.

We need to have it not far off sorted by the last three games though. We get given a hard last few games every single season without fail since we've won the league. We need a win on Sunday and if we don't get it the doubts will creep back in. The two after it are hard, but the four following that simply needs to be four wins. If we do that, and don't completely crumble in the others we'll make the top 4. We should be getting players return from injury by April as well - I'd like to think we have Castagne, Praet, Maddison and Barnes all back soon.

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West Ham currently 3-1 up over Arsenal. They have to be taken seriously now - for months I've been (hopefully so) saying 'ah surely they'll drop off'. But they're sticking around, to their credit!

Their run-in is very favourable, too - aside from ourselves, Chelsea & Everton who are most likely going to be the most challenging games for them to pick points in, they play Wolves, West Brom, Newcastle, Southampton, Burnley & Brighton. 

Can't see them dropping many points there unless they get an injury or two to upset their rhythm...

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Man Utd pretty much guaranteed top 4 with how the weekend's results went.

Everton surprisingly still in the mix given their 2 games in hand, especially if they win tonight...

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Next games
Brighton vs Everton
Everton vs Tottenham

Newcastle vs West Ham
Leeds vs Liverpool
Chelsea vs Brighton
Tottenham vs Southampton
Leicester vs West Brom

 

Leicester likely to drop down to 5th by the time they play, given that West Ham and Chelsea have very winnable games. 

Personally would prefer Everton and Spurs to draw this Friday...

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Leicester are making a right meal of this top four crack. They really should have secured top 3 by now with them being in the top four all season, now I wouldn’t be surprised if you dropped out altogether. 
 

I think it will be Chelsea and us that end up getting the 3rd & 4th places. 

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I think it's incredible we're still in contention. I don't think we'll get it, but for as long as it's possible I'll keep hoping. I don't see it happening, and I think it'll be absolutely hilarious if we come 4th... but here's hoping.

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33 minutes ago, Rick said:

Leicester are making a right meal of this top four crack. They really should have secured top 3 by now with them being in the top four all season, now I wouldn’t be surprised if you dropped out altogether. 
 

I think it will be Chelsea and us that end up getting the 3rd & 4th places. 

We were in pretty good form until our last 2 results.

We weren't that far ahead before that anyway, to my recollection.

I don't get how we could have secured top 3 at this time with the amount of games left. Not to mention the injuries we've suffered up to around end of Feb. Genuinely only recently, since just before the international break, we've been able to have some kind of settled squad or regular XI. Even then we've missed Justin, Barnes, Soyuncu, Maddison in those games...

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3 minutes ago, Stan said:

We were in pretty good form until our last 2 results.

We weren't that far ahead before that anyway, to my recollection.

I don't get how we could have secured top 3 at this time with the amount of games left. Not to mention the injuries we've suffered up to around end of Feb. Genuinely only recently, since just before the international break, we've been able to have some kind of settled squad or regular XI. Even then we've missed Justin, Barnes, Soyuncu, Maddison in those games...

Okay, maybe secures was the wrong word to choose, but when you’ve been in the top four all year long you would expect to have a better cushion. In just two weeks you’ve went from looking okay, to having three sides breathing down your neck. If you give up your top four position to us, then you’ll have had a completely howler. 

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I know every team will have a 'if only' result they can look back on but I keep thinking about our game at Leicester. We were so comfortable at 1-0. Then a combination of us losing our heads and the ridiculous VAR calls meant we end up with nothing. Even with a point out of that I'd fancy our chances much more

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@Stan there would have to be some reason for it to happen  two seasons in a row? I think it's more likely it's a mental thing because the players had the lockdown break last season so I'm  not sure if it's that they are running out of energy 

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2 minutes ago, Gunnersauraus said:

@Stan there would have to be some reason for it to happen  two seasons in a row? I think it's more likely it's a mental thing because the players had the lockdown break last season so I'm  not sure if it's that they are running out of energy 

This mentality thing was brought up on our club forum so I'll just copy and paste from there to save time, and add a little...

 

 

A side with mentality issue doesn't nearly come back from 3 goals down in the fashion we did yesterday. A side with a mentality issue goes on to lose that game 5-0 or 6-0 and then it ends up being really, really embarrassing.

The mentality perhaps could be better, but I don't think it's as bad as is being made out. At the moment, we've lost against Man City who are obliterating the league and will be the champions, and lost against West Ham who are one of the form sides in the country. 

A side with mentality issue doesn't recover from last seasons horrendously epic collapse and play like we have done up to now this season, i.e. in 3rd with 7 games to go and keep up the pace with Man Utd up to this weekend. A side with mentality issue collapses even more right from the start of the season and doesn't stay in top 4 all season and get to an FA Cup semi final. A side with mentality issues has an extremely underwhelming season when you think of the several injury setbacks we've had and gets broken as a team.

Let's not forget we are still 3rd (currently, anyway) and haven't fucked it up just yet. The most important thing is for the players to forget what happened last season - given how we've played so far this season and get to top 3 suggests they have. It's done, it happened, nothing can be done about that season. What they can do is not let it happen again and get back to winning ways starting with the next biggest game of the season on Sunday for an FA Cup semi-final.

 

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@Stan I was just speculating mate. To be fair man city at home and west ham away are tough games. You can soon loose a 6 point lead with games like that 

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In fairness we've not really had a bad run all season. On three occasions we've lost two in a row but the previous two times we bounced back with a run of wins. We've been generally a bit more consistent in picking up the results, rather than what happened last season where we went on a ridiculous run, built up a gap and just gradually fell apart. That said there's less room for error this season. The points threshold last season was much lower. It's why I think we can't afford even one draw in the next four games. They're all very winnable.

If we go and blow a couple of them I'll concede we're fucking it again and the problem is if it does happen again, it becomes a reputation, it's one of those things that you struggle to shake. Tottenham have rightly or wrongly had the bottlers tag for years. I'm convinced it plays on their minds a bit in certain situations. I really don't want that vicious cycle to happen here, but I really feel it could.

I think we've overachieved again based on preseason expectations, the way we fell off tainted many views, but given the players we've had out we've done exceptionally well to get this high again. We're the only side in the league who hasn't been outside of the top 4 all season.

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Regarding mentality - I personally don't think you can really judge yet. We lose to West Brom and all of a sudden people would rightly think there's a mentality problem. We go and beat Southampton in the cup, win those four, I think it would prove we're a bit tougher than last season. It was 100% a problem last season and nobody will convince me otherwise. It's not like we even blew it to good teams. We lost a semi final against an extremely beatable Villa over two legs, got 2 points from Norwich, Bournemouth, Watford and Brighton, that was just a straight up bottlejob, regardless of preseason expectations.

This season it's too early to say.

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We aren't still in the mix for top 4. We look incapable of scoring at the moment, we literally had one senior outfield player on the bench on Monday. There's a slim possibility that we do a better job than Spurs of grinding out results from poor performances and nick 7th but our fixtures don't help either.

For top 4, there's almost a depressing inevitability about Chelsea and Liverpool finishing 3rd and 4th after this weekend. It would be funny in its own way if that ended up happening. Leicester should still put a stop to it though, and if they don't there's always West Ham.

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How far down could the European spots go this season?

Of the Top 4, City and Chelsea still in the Champions League and City, Chelsea and Leicester still in the FA Cup.

So would this open up more Europa League spots in the league for the likes of Spurs/Everton?

And would Arsenal/Man U winning the Europa League affect any of the Champions League qualification?

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28 minutes ago, Lucas said:

How far down could the European spots go this season?

Of the Top 4, City and Chelsea still in the Champions League and City, Chelsea and Leicester still in the FA Cup.

So would this open up more Europa League spots in the league for the likes of Spurs/Everton?

And would Arsenal/Man U winning the Europa League affect any of the Champions League qualification?

Only way the Champions League spots are affected by the Europa League winner is if the winner of both the Europa League and Champions League finish outside the top four. So could potentially happen if Arsenal win EL and Chelsea CL while not getting top four.

Not sure on your other points

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1 hour ago, Lucas said:

And would Arsenal/Man U winning the Europa League affect any of the Champions League qualification?

To my knowledge there will be max 5 English participants for next season CL. Top 4 as standard. If the winner of EL is not in top 4, then they'll qualify in addition to those 4 clubs. 

If the winner is in the top 4, then it remains as those 4 clubs. 5th then goes in to Europa. 

I think that makes sense? 

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After the European Super League debacle, there were some surprising results. Amazingly Leicester stayed 3rd despite Chelsea and West Ham having relatively 'easier' games to play. The London clubs go head-to-head this weekend which favours others in the race as there'll be points dropped regardless. It's likely that Liverpool could jump in to 4th before West Ham & Chelsea play and could even stay there depending on the London derby result...

Everton only 6 points off 5th, but form has dropped considerably. Perhaps the return of key players at a vital time of the season could create a late push...

image.png

Next games:

Arsenal vs Everton
Liverpool vs Newcastle
West Ham vs Chelsea

Leicester vs Crystal Palace
 

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If West Ham want to make a push for it this upcoming game is the time to do it. They have the hardest fixture list (Chelsea) to end the season. I don't think this is the final table because a lot of teams in the top 4 chase are all playing each other. Contending for a CL final in the midst of all this will put a lot of pressure on rotation for Chelsea.  

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