UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[Dr. Gonzo]

11 hours ago, Harvsky said:

Under WTO rules you can set your own tariffs and quotas on imports. The key rule is that what you do for one country you must do for all. 

We've already got tariffs and quotas set under the WTO though, so our trade with the EU (and other countries we had trade agreements with as a EU member) would then have those tariffs apply. And yeah, we can't have discriminatory tariffs under WTO rules, it has to apply for all. But some of the tariff rates are known - as demonstrated by the particular examples given here by KPMG https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2017/07/customs-and-retail-thought-leadership.pdf

but yeah we'll still get our passports, I'm not even sure that passports would even have a tariff imposed on them - I doubt they would. If shit like bottled beer isn't likely to face tariffs, there will be many more items that don't. That whole "the new passports won't be printed here, that's going to cause issues" I think is a non-story that's not important. There's a whole host of other issues for British importers and/or exporters that are far more serious.

[Honey Honey]

12 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

We've already got tariffs and quotas set under the WTO though, so our trade with the EU (and other countries we had trade agreements with as a EU member) would then have those tariffs apply. And yeah, we can't have discriminatory tariffs under WTO rules, it has to apply for all. But some of the tariff rates are known - as demonstrated by the particular examples given here by KPMG https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/uk/pdf/2017/07/customs-and-retail-thought-leadership.pdf

but yeah we'll still get our passports, I'm not even sure that passports would even have a tariff imposed on them - I doubt they would. If shit like bottled beer isn't likely to face tariffs, there will be many more items that don't. That whole "the new passports won't be printed here, that's going to cause issues" I think is a non-story that's not important. There's a whole host of other issues for British importers and/or exporters that are far more serious.

You don't agree tariffs at WTO level you agree the maximum tariff, an upper bound, members can play as they wish within that bound. It says in that 2017 report on the first page: "Theoretically, the UK could drop all tariffs to zero"

Indeed earlier this year the previous government released their temporary tariff structure in the event of no deal. 83% of EU products would be tariff free, the result of which is that tariffs that currently exist would be removed on something like a third of goods from non-EU/non-FTA countries.

The 17%, the exporters, including the import to export is where business restructuring would likely occur in a volatile and recessionary manner.

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 hours ago, Harvsky said:

You don't agree tariffs at WTO level you agree the maximum tariff, an upper bound, members can play as they wish within that bound. It says in that 2017 report on the first page: "Theoretically, the UK could drop all tariffs to zero"

Indeed earlier this year the previous government released their temporary tariff structure in the event of no deal. 83% of EU products would be tariff free, the result of which is that tariffs that currently exist would be removed on something like a third of goods from non-EU/non-FTA countries.

The 17%, the exporters, including the import to export is where business restructuring would likely occur in a volatile and recessionary manner.

Pretty sure that plan’s just a stop gap until actual trade agreements are put in place, so doesn’t really ease my worries we’re going to be negotiating trade deals from a position of relative weakness compared to our existing trade deals from EU membership. Which is basically my primary worry of a No Deal Brexit, and has been since day 1.

[Honey Honey]

31 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Pretty sure that plan’s just a stop gap until actual trade agreements are put in place, so doesn’t really ease my worries we’re going to be negotiating trade deals from a position of relative weakness compared to our existing trade deals from EU membership. Which is basically my primary worry of a No Deal Brexit, and has been since day 1.

I'm not arguing for no deal. I'm simply questioning the detail behind certain claims. 

[SirBalon]

Removing tariffs is only possible if the UK leaves the EU’s customs union. Doing this would likely lead to the need for new checks on goods moving between the UK and the EU, which would introduce new costs on this trade.

The IFS concludes that these new costs would probably be greater than the limited savings from abolishing tariffs: leading to higher costs for consumers.

The MFN tariffs are the ones that are generally used, and must be applied to all WTO members a trade agreement isn’t in place with. In WTO parlance this means that all countries are treated the same as the “Most Favoured Nation”. There can be a large discrepancy between these two figures.

Hong Kong is the only place in the world to remove all of its tariffs, and in general, agricultural goods are subject to higher tariffs than other goods. This hits those that earn less with the ability to buy quality food which is part of the reason for the rise in junk food over the past decade and an increase in nutritional related diseases

Switzerland’s average MFN tariff, for example, is increased by the high tariffs it applies to agricultural products: on average 35%.

[Dr. Gonzo]

56 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

I'm not arguing for no deal. I'm simply questioning the detail behind certain claims. 

I think we’re going to get no deal though 

[Honey Honey]

1 hour ago, SirBalon said:

Removing tariffs is only possible if the UK leaves the EU’s customs union. Doing this would likely lead to the need for new checks on goods moving between the UK and the EU, which would introduce new costs on this trade.

The IFS concludes that these new costs would probably be greater than the limited savings from abolishing tariffs: leading to higher costs for consumers.

The MFN tariffs are the ones that are generally used, and must be applied to all WTO members a trade agreement isn’t in place with. In WTO parlance this means that all countries are treated the same as the “Most Favoured Nation”. There can be a large discrepancy between these two figures.

Hong Kong is the only place in the world to remove all of its tariffs, and in general, agricultural goods are subject to higher tariffs than other goods. This hits those that earn less with the ability to buy quality food which is part of the reason for the rise in junk food over the past decade and an increase in nutritional related diseases

Switzerland’s average MFN tariff, for example, is increased by the high tariffs it applies to agricultural products: on average 35%.

Where? Is this a revision on what they were saying last year? Is it a misinterpretation of Paul Johnson's April 2018 article in the Times "Costs of leaving customs union will inevitably outweigh the benefits"? Within which Johnson notes that consumer prices could fall by 1% if zero tariffs are applied, a figure he is quoting from his own organisations published research. 

Then there is the more recent November 2018 IFS report that leaving the customs union and reducing tariffs to zero would lower the price of household goods by 0.7-1.2%. The report ends to say that these reductions may be offset and lead to consumer price rises if there is regulatory diversion.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/12854

 

 

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think we’re going to get no deal though 

A lot of patliamentary arithmetic required to get there yet. 

[SirBalon]

I thought twice about posting this but hey, what the hell. Life should be fun!

But I’m surprised any self respecting Spaniard could ever got to Benidorm-on-Sea 

 

[Fairy In Boots]

2 hours ago, SirBalon said:

I thought twice about posting this but hey, what the hell. Life should be fun!

But I’m surprised any self respecting Spaniard could ever got to Benidorm-on-Sea 

 

If she thinks there’s bad she should try London it’s full of the fuckers all whinging about Brexit 

Edited August 12, 2019 by Fairy In Boots

[Inverted]

Jo Swinson has refused to say whether a Labour government or No Deal would be worse. 

Turns out the Lib Dems aren't an anti-Brexit party, they're just an anti-working-class party. 

Edited August 15, 2019 by Inverted

[The Artful Dodger]

Superb move by Corbyn, has exposed the Lib Dems as the Tory-lite opportunists that they are. Brilliant seeing all the 'liberals' squirm on this.

[Inverted]

23 hours ago, The Artful Dodger said:

Superb move by Corbyn, has exposed the Lib Dems as the Tory-lite opportunists that they are. Brilliant seeing all the 'liberals' squirm on this.

Apparently Lib Dems in general are taken aback by the party line on Corbyn's deal. The obsessively anti-Labour stance seems to be stemming from Swinson and Umunna, with Tom Watson's encouragement. 

If they didn't want to be dictated to by rabid Thatcherites maybe they should have joined a different party. 

Its also a good illustration careerist centrist psychopathy from Umunna. He's happy to push the country off the cliff-edge by domineering a party he joined a few weeks ago, rather than swallow an ounce of personal pride. 

Edit: 

Worth noting. The Lib Dem leadership are liars and manipulators, always have been. 

They'll compromise anything to work with the Tories, but to even brush shoulders with Labour they demand de facto control of the party. They see the Tories as their peers, and they see Labour as a working class mob that needs their guidance and approval. 

Edited August 16, 2019 by Inverted

[RandoEFC+]

So it looks like Boris is actually going to try and go ahead with the proroguing thing to stop MPs from fighting a No Deal outcome.

I know there are idiots on both sides of the debate but there are genuinely people in this country who don't see the irony in calling people pushing for a second referendum "undemocratic" while supporting an unelected Prime Minister to subvert the House of Commons to force through the result of a referendum decided by a 52/48 margin where the winning side's campaign was found to have broken electoral law.

[LFCMike]

1 hour ago, RandoEFC said:

So it looks like Boris is actually going to try and go ahead with the proroguing thing to stop MPs from fighting a No Deal outcome.

I know there are idiots on both sides of the debate but there are genuinely people in this country who don't see the irony in calling people pushing for a second referendum "undemocratic" while supporting an unelected Prime Minister to subvert the House of Commons to force through the result of a referendum decided by a 52/48 margin where the winning side's campaign was found to have broken electoral law.

There's no reasoning with them. They just start shouting 'leave means leave' at you

[Harry]

2 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

So it looks like Boris is actually going to try and go ahead with the proroguing thing to stop MPs from fighting a No Deal outcome.

I know there are idiots on both sides of the debate but there are genuinely people in this country who don't see the irony in calling people pushing for a second referendum "undemocratic" while supporting an unelected Prime Minister to subvert the House of Commons to force through the result of a referendum decided by a 52/48 margin where the winning side's campaign was found to have broken electoral law.

Not to mention what proportion of the 52% thought they were voting for some kind of sensible deal that would give the UK a leg to stand on.

[Pyfish+]

I wonder how many would still vote leave despite the chaos that's ensued so far?

[RandoEFC+]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

Not to mention what proportion of the 52% thought they were voting for some kind of sensible deal that would give the UK a leg to stand on.

 

42 minutes ago, Pyfish said:

I wonder how many would still vote leave despite the chaos that's ensued so far?

There are certainly some Leave voters who would have voted Remain if they knew what was coming but there are also a large number of people who would still vote Leave, the majority even.

If there was a second referendum now, Remain would probably win, especially if it was stated that Leave = No Deal, but it wouldn't be by the landslide you might expect and it wouldn't even be a certainty.

I think this is happening though. I can't see Johnson asking for an extension so we will leave the EU on October 31st, probably without a deal, unless Corbyn can somehow overthrow the government before then, which seems impossible and while I would vote Labour personally, Corbyn forming a government, and another unelected one at that, presents a whole litany of different issues in itself.

It might well be that the Queen has her say before all is said and done. I hope it doesn't have to go beyond a refusal to prorogue parliament so that something at least gets thrashed out in the House of Commons where all points of view are represented.

The best thing for the country would probably be another delay, a general election, and a new government formed to deliver whatever it is the public have voted for, be that no deal, remain, people's vote or continued negotiations for a deal.

[Machado]

Democracy, will of the people, etc.

 

[SirBalon]

10 minutes ago, Machado said:

Democracy, will of the people, etc.

 

Will of the extremists mate! You have to live here to know my friend and right now the Tory voters, sympathisers have been found out in the main. You've also got a few towards the centre left (mainly those few in the more extreme left), but the centre right and the emerging and more vocal extreme right have definitely executed a coup.

[Dr. Gonzo]

It's shocking this has support from anyone tbh

[RandoEFC+]

How anyone can say it's acceptable to do that regardless of which side they stand on is beyond me. People actually want to vote MPs into the House of Commons so that they can have no impact on the final outcome of the biggest decision this country has faced since the World Wars, so that a Prime Minister who nobody apart from a few hundred Tories voted into number ten can dictate the country's final decision?

[Machado]

21 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

How anyone can say it's acceptable to do that regardless of which side they stand on is beyond me. People actually want to vote MPs into the House of Commons so that they can have no impact on the final outcome of the biggest decision this country has faced since the World Wars, so that a Prime Minister who nobody apart from a few hundred Tories voted into number ten can dictate the country's final decision?

Boris is just like Trump  Not that this is breaking news, but this goes to show that he is far from being a politician driven by any convictions, ideological agenda or the pursuit of any distinct cause really. He's known for his odd appearance, PR stunts and occasional use of questionable language. Thankfully this is the man who heavily campaigned in favor of Brexit for personal gain and will be in charge when it happens, owning this tragedy for eternity, so hopefully history won't be kind to him.

 

32 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

It's shocking this has support from anyone tbh

It seems that many (unconsciously or not) think legal equals wise and acceptable, forgetting that laws were written by humans so they are inherently flawed and need revision periodically, or even constantly.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Wow that quote from Boris Johnson... irony is dead.

[RandoEFC+]

2 minutes ago, Machado said:

Boris is just like Trump  Not that this is breaking news, but this goes to show that he is far from being a politician driven by any convictions, ideological agenda or the pursuit of any distinct cause really. He's known for his odd appearance, PR stunts and occasional use of questionable language. Thankfully this is the man who heavily campaigned in favor of Brexit for personal gain and will be in charge when it happens, owning this tragedy for eternity, so hopefully history won't be kind to him.

 

It seems that many (unconsciously or not) think legal equals wise and acceptable, forgetting that laws were written by humans so they are inherently flawed and need revision periodically, or even constantly.

It's not even about Leave or Remain. It's just a totally cynical coup, get Brexit done regardless of how dodgy your tactics are. If this was over anything else then there would be full blown outrage but since the day this referendum was put forward nobody gives a shit about morals, immigration, imports, exports, the pound or the euro, the backstop, a trade deal. 90% of people on both sides just care about being on the side who wins. Remainers just want to have it overturned and say "told you so" at the "closet racists" who voted to Leave, while Leave voters just want to be vindicated in their vote to Leave and their bleating about "Remoaners" and "Project Fear" to be proven right.

Another question I have is how is Dominic Cummings, the man who ran the Vote Leave campaign that was found guilty of breaking electoral law, a) not in jail and b) allowed to work in Downing Street again. Where is the accountability? Why aren't the media absolutely destroying Boris for bringing this man who broke the law to help put the country in this ridiculous situation into his spare bedroom?

I'm just done with the whole thing. The electorate is stupid, and the only thing the referendum has achieved so far is shown the government that they can basically get away with whatever the fuck they want because even when you blatantly lie to the entire country and are found guilty of doing so, as long as you play enough parliamentary games that are "technically legal", you can select your own prime minister without an election, you can shut the government down whenever it suits you and you can employ known political criminals to advise you on the timings of your "technically legal" tactics.

I'm disgusted by the whole thing. I could swallow Leave winning the vote even though I voted Remain but I can't swallow the grossly inappropriate and undemocratic way in which the government is trying to achieve a result that a bare majority voted for three years ago with not just an absence of information available to them, but information which the courts have found to be outright lies by the people who not only got off with complete impunity but have actually found their way to running the country. 

[SirBalon]