The Relegation Battle 2023

[Michael]

I just read a couple of hours ago, that Bournemouth signed Ukrainian international defender Illya Zabarnyi from Dynamo Kyiv for £24 million on the last day of the January transfer window. All the talk in January, was of Zabarnyi's national team central defence partner Matviyenko joining Brighton & Hove Albion, but that deal fell through and instead Bournemouth managed to buy Zabarnyi. Despite being only 20 years old, Zabarnyi has a wealth of experience and he is a real defensive talent.

As far as predicting who will get relegated, I think it's quite hard to call. The main reason being because all the clubs down the bottom made signings in January. So I think that we have to wait a few matches, to see what impact these new signings are making at their respective clubs. As mentioned before, there is not much between the clubs points wise, down at the bottom of the table. I think that all the clubs from 12th placed Crystal Palace, down to last placed Southampton are in danger of going down. I believe Aston Villa have too many points to be seriously considered as relegation candidates. It would take a mighty FCUK up for them to go down, which seems highly unlikely given their points tally and the presence of the 9 clubs currently below them in the table standings.

With 17 Premier League matches still to play, for most of the clubs, there is still so much to play for. A good run of form from one of the clubs near the bottom, could see them move into a much more comfortable position. I think that when there are around 10 Premier League matches left for these clubs, the picture will look much more clearer, as to who is in serious danger of going down.

[Michael]

14 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Poor Frank .

Obviously feeling a lot more bullish from our perspective after this weekend. I think Southampton and Bournemouth are absolutely hopeless and will be gone a couple of weeks before the season ends. I was hoping that Forest would be the third team to have a really poor run and sink quite a bit. I still don't rate them but they seem to have had just enough of the shit they've thrown at the wall in the transfer market stick for them and have caught a few teams at just the right time in my opinion which has seen them rack up a decent points tally.

I think the third spot will go down to the last day again. Wolves I think will dip again despite their recent results because they're so poor at scoring goals. Everton have a lot to prove. Forest may well still be in the mix. Leeds I think will sack Marsch and benefit from a new manager bounce before the season's out but still be very much in the mix. I'd be surprised if West Ham actually dropped with the players they have and a manager who knows how to grind out enough points but they can't be ruled out.

Leicester will be fine and while Aston Villa are a bit average they've got points in the bank. Some people have touted Palace to fall back. I can see them maybe finishing 15thish behind whichever team or two I've mentioned of the relegation candidates manage to drag themselves out the best but I think seeing them slip to anything close to 18th place would be a major shock.

That was a huge result for Everton beating the league leaders Arsenal. But I fear that their lack of transfer activity in January, could very well cost them their Premier League status come the end of the season. They've also lost Anthony Gordon to Newcastle. All the other clubs around them in the danger zone, bought some good players in January. The notable players that these clubs bought in January are the following:

Southampton brought in Sulemana, Onuachu, Carlos Alcaraz and Orsic.

Bournemouth brought in Illya Zabarnyi, Dango Ouattara, Hamed Traore, Matias Vina and Semenyo.

Leeds United brought in Georginio Rutter, Weston McKennie and Maximilian Wober.

West Ham brought in Danny Ings. (Not much significant transfer activity from the Hammers admittedly, but they did bring in Ings)

Wolverhampton Wanderers brought in Pablo Sarabia, Matheus Cunha, Joao Gomes and Mario Lemina.

Leicester City brought in Tete, Harry Souttar and Victor Kristiansen.

Nottingham Forest brought in Danilo, Gustavo Scarpa, Andre Ayew, Felipe, Ui-jo Hwang, Chris Wood, Jonjo Shelvey and Keylor Navas.

Crystal Palace brought in Naouirou Ahamada and Lokonga.

These signings could play a significant role in changing the on the field fortunes of these respective clubs. They've also added depth to their squads, while Everton haven't done any of this. I hope that Everton stay up, they certainly have the potential to do so. But their plight would have significantly been helped if they managed to bring in at least a couple of notable signings in January.

[Dan+]

Saturday was the kind of game where I thought for all of Rodgers' brain-farts we have too much quality in our team to actually get relegated over a 38 game season. We have already had losing runs of 6 and 4 games which is alarming, but the weekend was the first sign of Leicester with the signings and they really did make a difference for me. To get this squad relegated would be disgraceful - I honestly think it's in the top half for quality. People might disagree but I do believe it.

The biggest concern is the goalkeeper now. Easily the leagues worst and really does annoy me how Forest, a newly promoted side can get in a world class goalkeeper while we persist with this bloke. He's probably the main leveler in what I just said abut us having a top half level side, to be so short in such a key position undermines so much of what you do. Both of us, however, I think will be alright - Forest are just annoyingly good at home. Extremely fortunate on multiple occasions (West Ham & Leeds) but they're good at seeing games out.

Bournemouth will go. They've made the Craig Shakespeare error with the worst squad in the division. Bottom of the xg table. They'll finish 20th and I'm quite confident of that.

It's all very interesting because nobody has been fully cut adrift and yet nearly every team has taken some kind of action. Palace are my dark horse to be involved in this.

Wolves and Leeds are the unknowns in it for me. I think Southampton will go. Everton - I know it was only one game but it really did feel transformative.

[RandoEFC+]

6 hours ago, Michael said:

That was a huge result for Everton beating the league leaders Arsenal. But I fear that their lack of transfer activity in January, could very well cost them their Premier League status come the end of the season. They've also lost Anthony Gordon to Newcastle. All the other clubs around them in the danger zone, bought some good players in January. The notable players that these clubs bought in January are the following:

Southampton brought in Sulemana, Onuachu, Carlos Alcaraz and Orsic.

Bournemouth brought in Illya Zabarnyi, Dango Ouattara, Hamed Traore, Matias Vina and Semenyo.

Leeds United brought in Georginio Rutter, Weston McKennie and Maximilian Wober.

West Ham brought in Danny Ings. (Not much significant transfer activity from the Hammers admittedly, but they did bring in Ings)

Wolverhampton Wanderers brought in Pablo Sarabia, Matheus Cunha, Joao Gomes and Mario Lemina.

Leicester City brought in Tete, Harry Souttar and Victor Kristiansen.

Nottingham Forest brought in Danilo, Gustavo Scarpa, Andre Ayew, Felipe, Ui-jo Hwang, Chris Wood, Jonjo Shelvey and Keylor Navas.

Crystal Palace brought in Naouirou Ahamada and Lokonga.

These signings could play a significant role in changing the on the field fortunes of these respective clubs. They've also added depth to their squads, while Everton haven't done any of this. I hope that Everton stay up, they certainly have the potential to do so. But their plight would have significantly been helped if they managed to bring in at least a couple of notable signings in January.

I'm not really concerned about the signings. We could have done with some and the operational shambles behind us not bringing in reinforcements or reinvesting the Gordon money was inexcusable from the club.

However, we honestly already have players that should be good enough to finish clear of the bottom three. Most of those players brought in by the teams around us, and granted we were in for many of the same ones, were floating around in the bottom half of the French league and stuff like that. I'm not getting cocky or anything but I'm also not looking around at Andre Ayew and Sulemana and Shelvey and thinking oh shit we can't compete with that quality.

[Dan+]

Forest just collect players for some reason. Absolutely no idea why they've bothered with Ayew and Shelvey. Keylor Navas is a barely believable coup though. I said back in the summer we should try an audacious bid even just for a year but didn't think it was ever likely - now we see it would've been.

I really can't work it out at Forest though. Can't tell if they're making gradual progress or if they're getting lucky. They seem to be good enough at scraping these wins at home to keep themselves up.

[OrangeKhrush]

Everton are not looking good long term, survival is key but I see it being more of the same next season.

[Dan+]

It'll stay the same there until they sort their recruitment out. Even Dyche as much as I think he'll have their squad in some sort of order and he'll set out some far better principles on the pitch, there's only so long you can get away with poor players. I do think he may rekindle a couple of them though - really good signs on last week.

[Reluctant Striker]

Southampton & Bournemouth still seem favourites.

Villa do still need a couple more W's. And I have a feeling they'll keep fans waiting.

Palace & Forest that extra 1 or 2.

Leicester will stay up. If sides give them chances, they will take them & pick up points.

I have a feeling the 3rd side to go will seem harsh & have a hard luck story. The way Fulham are top half & now Forest perhaps doing enough, it really has made it a tough season for sides that would usually have the 'too good to go down' tag.

 

[Dan+]

15 minutes ago, Reluctant Striker said:

Southampton & Bournemouth still seem favourites.

Villa do still need a couple more W's. And I have a feeling they'll keep fans waiting.

Palace & Forest that extra 1 or 2.

Leicester will stay up. If sides give them chances, they will take them & pick up points.

I have a feeling the 3rd side to go will seem harsh & have a hard luck story. The way Fulham are top half & now Forest perhaps doing enough, it really has made it a tough season for sides that would usually have the 'too good to go down' tag.

And even those two are in nowhere close to as perillous a position as you had last year with the likes of Norwich & Watford who were absolutely miles off for ages. I think they'll both go, particularly Bournemouth but people do jump the gun branding them already down.

I think there's value to be had in backing the likes of Palace and Forest.

[OrangeKhrush]

4 hours ago, Dan said:

It'll stay the same there until they sort their recruitment out. Even Dyche as much as I think he'll have their squad in some sort of order and he'll set out some far better principles on the pitch, there's only so long you can get away with poor players. I do think he may rekindle a couple of them though - really good signs on last week.

I wouldn't mind taking Onana off them

[RandoEFC+]

There's supposed to be a lot of decent stuff on the footballing operations going on behind the scenes. The Director of Football Thelwell has been restructuring basically everything. A head of recruitment and head of development have both been employed over the past few days, one of them coming from Brighton so should have some good ideas about improving those areas looking at what they've done.

This work has gone on while Moshiri wasn't really involved for the past year since Lampard was employed. He decided to start sticking his nose back in over January and shock horror the transfer window ended up a disaster for us.

[Stan]

Two more big games at the bottom this weekend.

Everton vs Leeds
Wolves vs Bournemouth

Then final weekend of Feb:
Leeds vs Southampton
West Ham vs Forest

[Dan+]

Us and Wolves aren't out of the mire yet but it's quite hard to see either dropping IMO. Feel similarly about West Ham.

[OrangeKhrush]

Everton, Soton and Bournemouth

[Azeem]

Manchester City is in a different kind of relegation battle

[Devil]

Southampton and Bournemouth are both down in my opinion as neither look like they can win a game.

Other than that its really difficult to call, I could genuinely make a case for everyone to stay up.

Everton - New manager is quality, he will get them working their socks off.

Leeds - Showed against us twice they can be dangerous for anyone, they will also get that new manager bounce.

Forest - Signed a lot of players but their form since early season is top half stuff so I can't see them going.

West Ham - Good manager, strong squad in a false position.

Leicester - Same as above

Wolves - Got decent manager and bought well in the January window

Palace - Could be dragged in but suspect their strength at home will keep them from being drawn into a full relegation battle.

If I was forced to pick one it would be Leeds, but then again I thought they did well against us.

[Stan]

5 minutes ago, Devil said:

Southampton and Bournemouth are both down in my opinion as neither look like they can win a game.

Other than that its really difficult to call, I could genuinely make a case for everyone to stay up.

Everton - New manager is quality, he will get them working their socks off.

Leeds - Showed against us twice they can be dangerous for anyone, they will also get that new manager bounce.

Forest - Signed a lot of players but there form since early season is top half stuff so I can't see them going.

West Ham - Good manager, strong squad in a false position.

Leicester - Same as above

Wolves - Got decent manager and bought well in the January window

Palace - Could be dragged in but suspect their strength at home will keep them from being drawn into a full relegation battle.

If I was forced to pick one it would be Leeds, but then again I thought they did well against us.

Fair assessment.

I think Forest may just about survive based on home form. Their away form is shocking. Still can't work out if all the new signings will be a good or bad thing. Not sure their form is 'top-half', or ever has been?

Everton will survive under Dyche. There'll be a lot of 1-0s or 0-0s. Not sure if Leeds have enough - perhaps it does depend on their managerial situation and who they get in, if anyone. Leeds have Man City, Tottenham & Newcastle in some of their final games. They need points now before it may be too late...

West Ham are still in danger; wonder how much Europe will affect them/their squad. 

[N U F C]

Bournemouth, Southampton & Leeds for me currently.

The final place changes on pretty much a weekly basis but I'm fairly confident the first two will go this year.

[Dr. Gonzo]

5 minutes ago, N U F C said:

Bournemouth, Southampton & Leeds for me currently.

The final place changes on pretty much a weekly basis but I'm fairly confident the first two will go this year.

I agree with this too. Agree with @Devil that Bournemouth and Southampton are looking down already. And I don't think Jesse March can turn things around at Southampton.

I think Everton, despite looking uncharacteristically soft for a Dyche side, will survive because of him. That was what... his second game in charge of them & it's one of the biggest matches for both clubs involved. I think he'll have them getting enough draws and 1-0 wins to survive. Forest I thought might go down in the first half of the season because of how many new faces they've added - but it looks to me like some of those summer signings are settling in and they've got decent home form. I think they've got enough about them to survive.

On paper West Ham and Leicester have too much quality to go down... obviously football's not played on paper, but I think they stay up at the end of the season. Wolves and Palace are similar, but I think if they're not lucky they could get pulled in too.

With Leeds I think they just go down because I'm not sure a new manager bounce will actually save them - they just look too weak defensively for me. I'd like them to stay up but I just have a feeling they don't survive this season for some reason.

[Dan+]

Gets more and more daft by the week. Every single side has a tendency to spring a win you don't expect when you thought they were done for.

I sort of want a situation to happen where any of about 7 can go down on the final day providing we aren't one of them.

I agree with the overriding feeling about us in that we've got too good a squad to get relegated but it isn't a given. These are the sorts of silly circumstances that may relegate a surprise side - maybe somebody like West Ham or Wolves, who float about all season, everyone assumes they will dig out but they never fully do and they get drowned at the end.

It's like hot potato at the bottom. I feel like a side in the bottom three wins every week without fail.

[Devil-Dick Willie]

Usually the thing that saves you from the relegation battle is the fact that the bottom 2 or 3 teams can't pick up any points at all, and even dire teams don't have to worry too much about a 4 or 5 point gap, because the bastards will take 6 weeks to fill it. This season that doesn't seem to be the case. No one is cut adrift and I can see teams with 40pts being in big fucking trouble. 

[Michael]

I personally don't think there are any sides who look certain to be relegated at this stage. In my opinion, any team from 12th placed Palace and below them in the table, are still at risk of being relegated at this stage. There are still so many matches to be played and with Palace only 6 points above West Ham in the relegation zone, the Eagles are not safe yet. Any of the sides at the bottom can beat each other on any given day, so it's really unpredictable as to who the 3 relegated teams will be.

Bottom placed Southampton had a huge win away to Chelsea, this will no doubt boost their morale, despite them being last in the table with 18 points. Bournemouth also gained a big victory away to Wolves and Everton also defeated Leeds. So it's looking very unpredictable down at the bottom of the league.

[Stan]

This relegation picture has more twists and turns than the cork-screw rollercoaster...

Southampton, Bournemouth, Everton all win; Forest get a draw against Man City.

Some of next week's games are just as big:

West Ham vs Nottm Forest
Leeds vs Southampton
 

[Dan+]

I did think we could take something off Arsenal but I'm a lot less convinced after that yesterday, I think they'll have too much for us and we won't be able to control the game like we did against Tottenham.

April will largely make or break us. We play Palace, Bournemouth, Leeds, Wolves & Everton - and probably Villa too.

[RandoEFC+]

I haven't been shaken from my feeling that Bournemouth, Southampton and Forest are the three naturally worst teams. Forest look so poor every time I watch them, I still can't decide whether they've done something right to rack up the points they've got or whether they've just had more than their fair share of luck in catching teams at the right time.