Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Bluebird Hewitt]

9 hours ago, Stan said:

 

@Bluebird Hewitt this true? 

 

Not sure in all honesty. The Welsh Government are due to publish their exit strategy this morning so we might hear something then. 

If this is true then fair play to them, but considering the tweet is from 'The Left Wing Society' and published by the Mirror (not even Walesonline has published it and that's a subsidiary), that doesn't look too reliable. 

Also, not sure if it possibly falls under a small part of this article to a degree, but the Welsh Government won't be giving business relief to those with rateable values £500k and above. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52094877

While there's obviously no clear link, you'd imagine that those businesses based in tax haven would be the same ones not eligible for the relief. 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Bluebird Hewitt

[Honey Honey]

1 hour ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

Not sure in all honesty. The Welsh Government are due to publish their exit strategy this morning so we might hear something then. 

If this is true then fair play to them, but considering the tweet is from 'The Left Wing Society' and published by the Mirror (not even Walesonline has published it and that's a subsidiary), that doesn't look too reliable. 

Also, not sure if it possibly falls under a small part of this article to a degree, but the Welsh Government won't be giving business relief to those with rateable values £500k and above. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52094877

While there's obviously no clear link, you'd imagine that those businesses based in tax haven would be the same ones not eligible for the relief. 

It's in the Mirror with quotes from the Welsh finance minister. Be odd if not true. 

[RandoEFC+]

Mad that anti-lockdowners are still trying to use Sweden as an example of how the lockdown hasn't actually made any difference. Bonus points when they use "countries like Sweden" or "Sweden and other countries" then fail to provide a second example of said other countries.

To be fair though, in the long run we still don't know if Sweden's approach may have some merit. Has their health system been overwhelmed? If we can't get a vaccine then the only option will be to eventually let a large enough proportion of the population to catch it and develop immunity.

My Mum used to tell me stories of another infection, chicken pox, that was relatively safe to catch as a child but much more dangerous if you caught it later in life. People used to take their toddlers round to their neighbours' houses when their kids had chicken pox so that they could catch it themselves and develop immunity to it. I'm mostly joking, but could we end up doing something like that with Covid 19?

[Bluebird Hewitt]

5 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

It's in the Mirror with quotes from the Welsh finance minister. Be odd if not true. 

True, though I would have expected this on Walesonline (seeing as it's more local) and other media outlets (on BBC at least anyway). 

[Bluebird Hewitt]

6 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Mad that anti-lockdowners are still trying to use Sweden as an example of how the lockdown hasn't actually made any difference. Bonus points when they use "countries like Sweden" or "Sweden and other countries" then fail to provide a second example of said other countries.

To be fair though, in the long run we still don't know if Sweden's approach may have some merit. Has their health system been overwhelmed? If we can't get a vaccine then the only option will be to eventually let a large enough proportion of the population to catch it and develop immunity.

My Mum used to tell me stories of another infection, chicken pox, that was relatively safe to catch as a child but much more dangerous if you caught it later in life. People used to take their toddlers round to their neighbours' houses when their kids had chicken pox so that they could catch it themselves and develop immunity to it. I'm mostly joking, but could we end up doing something like that with Covid 19?

Didn't @Dr. Gonzo point out that Sweden is more spread out mind?

Bit stupid really from the anti-lockdown lot really. 

[Honey Honey]

25 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Mad that anti-lockdowners are still trying to use Sweden as an example of how the lockdown hasn't actually made any difference. Bonus points when they use "countries like Sweden" or "Sweden and other countries" then fail to provide a second example of said other countries.

To be fair though, in the long run we still don't know if Sweden's approach may have some merit. Has their health system been overwhelmed? If we can't get a vaccine then the only option will be to eventually let a large enough proportion of the population to catch it and develop immunity.

My Mum used to tell me stories of another infection, chicken pox, that was relatively safe to catch as a child but much more dangerous if you caught it later in life. People used to take their toddlers round to their neighbours' houses when their kids had chicken pox so that they could catch it themselves and develop immunity to it. I'm mostly joking, but could we end up doing something like that with Covid 19?

I was in primary school so don't remember exact details of this but when my sister got chicken pox I recall my mum being eager for me to get it from her. My dad had to stay away from us for 2 weeks as he'd never had it. 

As for Sweden, I read this morning that the lead epidemiologists there are blaming care homes for Sweden's death count. They make up 50% of it. The Swedish public are also apparently polling in favour of the approach. 

[Carnivore Chris]

2 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

 

My Mum used to tell me stories of another infection, chicken pox, that was relatively safe to catch as a child but much more dangerous if you caught it later in life. People used to take their toddlers round to their neighbours' houses when their kids had chicken pox so that they could catch it themselves and develop immunity to it. I'm mostly joking, but could we end up doing something like that with Covid 19?

But it worked. 

I had chicken pox as a kid. I came out in shingles aswell in my early 20s and apparently you can only have that if you have had chicken pox. Shingles were just under the arm pit area though. I thought I had a disease like monkeypox at first as I came out in it just days after being bitten and scratched by a monkey in a house party(don't ask), but that was pretty grim to be fair. Nothing antibiotics didn't get rid of but it leaves a weird feeling in your nerves in that area for months.

 

 

 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Carnivore Chris

[RandoEFC+]

2 hours ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

Didn't @Dr. Gonzo point out that Sweden is more spread out mind?

Bit stupid really from the anti-lockdown lot really. 

Yeah some people have pointed that out on here but there are plenty of dummies out there who dont care about population density or the fact that their deaths are sky high compared to their geographical neighbours or the fact that Sweden still tried to impose social distancing but trusted their population to be sensible and ended up achieving vastly the same result as a lockdown or that they dont have to look after massive city hubs like London and Manchester in Sweden etc.

2 hours ago, Harvsky said:

As for Sweden, I read this morning that the lead epidemiologists there are blaming care homes for Sweden's death count. They make up 50% of it. The Swedish public are also apparently polling in favour of the approach. 

Interesting. On the Isle of Man we had a pretty stringent lockdown that has been well observed by the public. There are countless caveats here that make it impossible to make comparisons with the UK (population under 100k, small island with easy to monitor borders, nobody making long commutes to work, sparsely populated etc) so I won't go down that route but we closed our borders and ports completely, closed schools etc, and kept the death toll down to about 25 people. 20 of those all came from an outbreak in a single care home.

With Sweden I've heard a lot of conflicting reports, usually depending on the agenda of who is reporting it unfortunately, but it seems to be that they recommended all of the same measures to their population instead of telling them you have to do it and the end result hasn't been different. Perhaps being given the choice is why they're so in favour of it. I still dont think the -'common sense' approach is viable in the UK because there's far too much misinformation and conflicting 'science' knocking about, a private sector that's, let's say 'more urgent' etc.

30 minutes ago, Carnivore Chris said:

But it worked. 

I had chicken pox as a kid. I came out in shingles aswell in my early 20s and apparently you can only have that if you have had chicken pox. Shingles were just under the arm pit area though. I thought I had a disease like monkeypox at first as I came out in it just days after being bitten and scratched by a monkey in a house party(don't ask), but that was pretty grim to be fair. Nothing antibiotics didn't get rid of but it leaves a weird feeling in your nerves in that area for months.

 

 

 

This is what I'm saying. If it's safe for kids to catch coronavirus without dying or even getting ill enough to need treatment, is it a viable strategy of sorts to allow a deliberate, controlled infection of young people so that they can develop immunity? It's a left field suggestion and to do so now would be reckless and irresponsible beyond belief because the science is far from conclusive about how safe it is and how much it would curtail the spread, but it worked for chicken pox. Just a random thought. You've got to conclude though that if one child dies from it that's one too many.

[Harry]

2 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Mad that anti-lockdowners are still trying to use Sweden as an example of how the lockdown hasn't actually made any difference. Bonus points when they use "countries like Sweden" or "Sweden and other countries" then fail to provide a second example of said other countries.

To be fair though, in the long run we still don't know if Sweden's approach may have some merit. Has their health system been overwhelmed? If we can't get a vaccine then the only option will be to eventually let a large enough proportion of the population to catch it and develop immunity.

My Mum used to tell me stories of another infection, chicken pox, that was relatively safe to catch as a child but much more dangerous if you caught it later in life. People used to take their toddlers round to their neighbours' houses when their kids had chicken pox so that they could catch it themselves and develop immunity to it. I'm mostly joking, but could we end up doing something like that with Covid 19?

I'm a jumble of thoughts on this subject. For sure I'm grateful to Sweden for doing what they've done, as one way or another we will all learn alot from the outlier approaches like sweden and new Zealand. 

However Sweden has become such a controversial topic you struggle to get fair representation on how things are going there, not only in Covid stats but in terms of their levels of economic performance, and what the reality is on the ground floor... You could have the impression Sweden is just carrying on with business as usual however I'm willing to bet their retail businesses which are shuttered in other nations will likely be suffering significantly, and that whilst things may not be officially banned I'll bet people have still radically changed their behaviour.

With regard to chicken pox parties I think that absolutely that becomes the way to go. Infect as many people who are young, healthy and highly likely to survive... You've gotta introduce that bias otherwise reaching herd immunity seems pointless... If everyone needs to catch it to get herd immunity who is left to benefit from the protection of forget spread?

[Stan]

1 hour ago, Carnivore Chris said:

But it worked. 

I had chicken pox as a kid. I came out in shingles aswell in my early 20s and apparently you can only have that if you have had chicken pox. Shingles were just under the arm pit area though. I thought I had a disease like monkeypox at first as I came out in it just days after being bitten and scratched by a monkey in a house party(don't ask), but that was pretty grim to be fair. Nothing antibiotics didn't get rid of but it leaves a weird feeling in your nerves in that area for months.

 

 

 

I had shingles as well a few years back. Still got the scars on my back from it. It wasn't so much the pain (I got used to it) it was what it did to your body and made it so awkward to sleep. I worry for when I'll get it again as apparently once you've had it, the risk of getting it again is higher than normal. Just lies dormant inside you. I think I got mine due to exposure to high temperatures (was in Morocco when I got it). 

57 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

 

This is what I'm saying. If it's safe for kids to catch coronavirus without dying or even getting ill enough to need treatment, is it a viable strategy of sorts to allow a deliberate, controlled infection of young people so that they can develop immunity? It's a left field suggestion and to do so now would be reckless and irresponsible beyond belief because the science is far from conclusive about how safe it is and how much it would curtail the spread, but it worked for chicken pox. Just a random thought. You've got to conclude though that if one child dies from it that's one too many.

Isn't the theory still that kids can get it but not show symptoms. I think with chicken pox it's certified known that it can be cured/recovered from/treated.

A deliberate controlled infection and building immunity is one of the theories Boris discussed (that clip on This Morning about taking it on the chin) and is herd immunity isn't it? The risk with kids is that they could be asymptomatic - so while it may be 'safe' for them to catch it, what about when they go home and give it to older members of their families? 

I think some children have already died from COVID19 anyway? We're talking very, very low percentages but yeah I can't see it ever happening. I think we'll have a vaccine before it even gets considered anyway. 

[Harry]

I am starting to feel the Sweden approach is where we will all end up in trying to limit the spread. 

[MUFC]

8 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

Mad that anti-lockdowners are still trying to use Sweden as an example of how the lockdown hasn't actually made any difference. Bonus points when they use "countries like Sweden" or "Sweden and other countries" then fail to provide a second example of said other countries.

To be fair though, in the long run we still don't know if Sweden's approach may have some merit. Has their health system been overwhelmed? If we can't get a vaccine then the only option will be to eventually let a large enough proportion of the population to catch it and develop immunity.

My Mum used to tell me stories of another infection, chicken pox, that was relatively safe to catch as a child but much more dangerous if you caught it later in life. People used to take their toddlers round to their neighbours' houses when their kids had chicken pox so that they could catch it themselves and develop immunity to it. I'm mostly joking, but could we end up doing something like that with Covid 19?

My mum also told me about this. They used to call it chickenpox parties. Am gutted I never got to go when younger. 

[Danny]

Good article on obesity and coronavirus https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/obesity-covid-19?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-share-article&utm_content=20200430&fbclid=IwAR0pa36R0GRG14lcwLLAEkFZ5_NdPSTPSHDgKXqNJtt2G7vs7glMjYbeERc

[nudge+]

39 minutes ago, Danny said:

Good article on obesity and coronavirus https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/obesity-covid-19?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=social-share-article&utm_content=20200430&fbclid=IwAR0pa36R0GRG14lcwLLAEkFZ5_NdPSTPSHDgKXqNJtt2G7vs7glMjYbeERc

I'll be honest, I'm at loss at what is the actual point of this article? Questioning whether obesity alone is an independent factor for higher risk of covid-19 complications or whether it's a combination of factors is one thing, but it soon went into "fat activists" (whatever the fuck it is) rambling about the society and scientists interpreting the research data being "fatphobic" and claiming that it's harmful to attribute obesity to negative outcomes because it causes stigma and daily discrimination to those of "higher weight"  The best part was the claim that apparently it's not being obese but the stigma associated with it that jeopardises their health, as it "can increase the likelihood of chronic inflammation, which is in turn linked to diseases that increase COVID-19 risk such as heart disease, cancer, asthma, and diabetes". What a load of bollocks. They should be encouraging obese people to change their diets and lifestyles to improve their general health instead of accusing researchers of having prejudices against "fat bodies"...

[Dr. Gonzo]

10 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

My Mum used to tell me stories of another infection, chicken pox, that was relatively safe to catch as a child but much more dangerous if you caught it later in life. People used to take their toddlers round to their neighbours' houses when their kids had chicken pox so that they could catch it themselves and develop immunity to it. I'm mostly joking, but could we end up doing something like that with Covid 19?

I'd heard some people were having Covid-19 parties for the same reason. I still think with the virus being new, it's probably too early to be trying something like that in places where healthcare systems can potentially get overwhelmed like we saw with Italy. But if there's no vaccine, I can see that sort of stuff being done to build up an immunity in kids. It's hard to really say though, because so little is known about the virus and what the long terms effects are. They say it's not that bad for kids, but I do know the US had an infant death from it a few weeks ago.

 

49 minutes ago, nudge said:

I'll be honest, I'm at loss at what is the actual point of this article? Questioning whether obesity alone is an independent factor for higher risk of covid-19 complications or whether it's a combination of factors is one thing, but it soon went into "fat activists" (whatever the fuck it is) rambling about the society and scientists interpreting the research data being "fatphobic" and claiming that it's harmful to attribute obesity to negative outcomes because it causes stigma and daily discrimination to those of "higher weight"  The best part was the claim that apparently it's not being obese but the stigma associated with it that jeopardises their health, as it "can increase the likelihood of chronic inflammation, which is in turn linked to diseases that increase COVID-19 risk such as heart disease, cancer, asthma, and diabetes". What a load of bollocks. They should be encouraging obese people to change their diets and lifestyles to improve their general health instead of accusing researchers of having prejudices against "fat bodies"...

Yeah, I agree with that take on that article. I sort of rolled my eyes with that editorial note explaining how "fat-activist friendly terms will be used" when it's meant to be a health article, and the correct medical term to be using throughout the article is "obese." Asking us to separate being obese from the number of health issues that can stem from obesity doesn't really make sense, when we're discussing obesity as a medical issue in the face of a global health crisis.

[Danny]

1 hour ago, nudge said:

I'll be honest, I'm at loss at what is the actual point of this article? Questioning whether obesity alone is an independent factor for higher risk of covid-19 complications or whether it's a combination of factors is one thing, but it soon went into "fat activists" (whatever the fuck it is) rambling about the society and scientists interpreting the research data being "fatphobic" and claiming that it's harmful to attribute obesity to negative outcomes because it causes stigma and daily discrimination to those of "higher weight"  The best part was the claim that apparently it's not being obese but the stigma associated with it that jeopardises their health, as it "can increase the likelihood of chronic inflammation, which is in turn linked to diseases that increase COVID-19 risk such as heart disease, cancer, asthma, and diabetes". What a load of bollocks. They should be encouraging obese people to change their diets and lifestyles to improve their general health instead of accusing researchers of having prejudices against "fat bodies"...

I was referring to the parts that questioned the way obesity is connected to Covid19 in that the obesity rates generally match national obesity rates, which in itself doesn’t show obesity as being particularly harmful just representative of national averages. It also pointed out how obesity rates are generally higher amongst the working classes and these are the same group of people likely to contract Covid. The research done also doesn’t delve into health issues or occupations either, essentially just sees a large portion of obese people and assumes that’s a health risk rather than the reasons behind why there might be a larger pool of obese people

[nudge+]

5 minutes ago, Danny said:

I was referring to the parts that questioned the way obesity is connected to Covid19 in that the obesity rates generally match national obesity rates, which in itself doesn’t show obesity as being particularly harmful just representative of national averages. It also pointed out how obesity rates are generally higher amongst the working classes and these are the same group of people likely to contract Covid. The research done also doesn’t delve into health issues or occupations either, essentially just sees a large portion of obese people and assumes that’s a health risk rather than the reasons behind why there might be a larger pool of obese people

Obesity rates of hospitalised cases might generally match national obesity rates (although I'm not sure that's true - for example in the French study the obesity rate of hospitalised patients was 70%, whereas the national obesity rate in France is only 17%), but that doesn't mean that the researchers simply "see a large portion of obese people and assume that’s a health risk", that's a ridiculous claim. First of all, obesity itself is the main proven risk factor for other observed comorbidities of covid-19 (diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, chronical inflammation); and not only that - it's pretty much a risk factor for anything health-related and a primary driver of many chronic illnesses. The article also conveniently ignores other studies from numerous countries which demonstrate that the proportion of cases that develop severe pneumonia and require mechanical ventilation is by far higher in those with obesity than in those without, even when controlled for potential confounders and independently from other comorbidities. Yes, there should be more research done and more data collected, but at this point everything points at obesity being a factor associated with a more severe course of the disease and more negative outcomes, so I'm not sure why we should pussyfoot around it based on some weird claim that such facts are somehow harmful to the obese because it creates stigma. Normalisation of obesity is what's harmful to the public health, not scientific research pointing it out as one of the risk factors.

[Danny]

9 minutes ago, nudge said:

Obesity rates of hospitalised cases might generally match national obesity rates (although I'm not sure that's true - for example in the French study the obesity rate of hospitalised patients was 70%, whereas the national obesity rate in France is only 17%), but that doesn't mean that the researchers simply "see a large portion of obese people and assume that’s a health risk", that's a ridiculous claim. First of all, obesity itself is the main proven risk factor for other observed comorbidities of covid-19 (diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, chronical inflammation); and not only that - it's pretty much a risk factor for anything health-related and a primary driver of many chronic illnesses. The article also conveniently ignores other studies from numerous countries which demonstrate that the proportion of cases that develop severe pneumonia and require mechanical ventilation is by far higher in those with obesity than in those without, even when controlled for potential confounders and independently from other comorbidities. Yes, there should be more research done and more data collected, but at this point everything points at obesity being a factor associated with a more severe course of the disease and more negative outcomes, so I'm not sure why we should pussyfoot around it based on some weird claim that such facts are somehow harmful to the obese because it creates stigma. Normalisation of obesity is what's harmful to the public health, not scientific research pointing it out as one of the risk factors.

I’m not an expert and definitely not well versed in this so I won’t drag an argument on...but the article makes valid points in how personal and national circumstance can often be ignored when claiming obesity, and often obesity as described as being over a certain BMI to be an issue. There is also a growing movement amongst health and medical professionals who would support that rhetoric such as this exists as weight stigma as opposed to it being concrete.

[nudge+]

18 minutes ago, Danny said:

I’m not an expert and definitely not well versed in this so I won’t drag an argument on...but the article makes valid points in how personal and national circumstance can often be ignored when claiming obesity, and often obesity as described as being over a certain BMI to be an issue. There is also a growing movement amongst health and medical professionals who would support that rhetoric such as this exists as weight stigma as opposed to it being concrete.

I really, really don't get your point. BMI might not be flawless as a measurement (there are better ones), but obesity is an established medical diagnosis with well known concrete negative health effects with tons of research throughout the decades, so I'm not sure what "rhetoric" you're referring to? Yes, it's a complex condition influenced by many factors, including genetic and socioeconomic ones, but regardless of what combination of factors causes it, it doesn't change the fact that an obese person is, well, obese. It's a medical term, not some arbitrary label assigned to someone in order to discriminate or create stigma. I think the article is just trying to spin the latest research on obesity and covid-19 into some sort of a social issue, which in my opinion is a very weird thing to do here.

[MUFC]

3 hours ago, nudge said:

I really, really don't get your point. BMI might not be flawless as a measurement (there are better ones), but obesity is an established medical diagnosis with well known concrete negative health effects with tons of research throughout the decades, so I'm not sure what "rhetoric" you're referring to? Yes, it's a complex condition influenced by many factors, including genetic and socioeconomic ones, but regardless of what combination of factors causes it, it doesn't change the fact that an obese person is, well, obese. It's a medical term, not some arbitrary label assigned to someone in order to discriminate or create stigma. I think the article is just trying to spin the latest research on obesity and covid-19 into some sort of a social issue, which in my opinion is a very weird thing to do here.

Being honest, loads of crap is being thrown around. At the moment people just seem to be talking, for the sake of talking.

[Harry]

Shit just got real

[Stan]

Italy looking to open up their internal regional borders and also national borders from 3rd June.

Shops and restaurants, with social distancing, due to open from 18th May...

[Bluewolf]

Why is it when Politicians can't agree on something it's called a heated debate and when the Teachers Union can't agree with them it's called Squabbling??? The return to school date for children is rumbling on with Miss ( don't mind the odd dodgy deal ) Anne Longfield leading the charge to return as a matter of urgency citing the health and well being of the most vulnerable. This is despite the fact that no other country has yet set a date for the kids to return?? why the rush I wonder?? 

Perhaps they need more parents free to get the economy back on track... That's right Government you keep pushing people back to work filling those buses and trains up choc full to the brim.. We will see this thing through no matter what with a bit of the old wartime spirit.. Well at least the general public will while the Government still work safely from home on conference calls and probably half a dozen test kits each tucked away in the drawer somewhere... 

[Stan]

5 minutes ago, Bluewolf said:

Why is it when Politicians can't agree on something it's called a heated debate and when the Teachers Union can't agree with them it's called Squabbling??? The return to school date for children is rumbling on with Miss ( don't mind the odd dodgy deal ) Anne Longfield leading the charge to return as a matter of urgency citing the health and well being of the most vulnerable. This is despite the fact that no other country has yet set a date for the kids to return?? why the rush I wonder?? 

Perhaps they need more parents free to get the economy back on track... That's right Government you keep pushing people back to work filling those buses and trains up choc full to the brim.. We will see this thing through no matter what with a bit of the old wartime spirit.. Well at least the general public will while the Government still work safely from home on conference calls and probably half a dozen test kits each tucked away in the drawer somewhere... 

Precisely this.

I get the feeling they don't properly 'care' as such and are willing to let people take risks like pack public transport, so that Sky News can provide footage of buses emptying scores of people to further the government's agenda and support their notion that it will be the public that are at fault...

[Harry]

Seriously how in the fuck did China go from having 100k cases to having zero when everyone else is not even coming close to replicating that level of success?