Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Honey Honey]

South Korea have now tested 24000 people linked to the nightclub spread of coronavirus. Finding 120 infected. This is impressive track and trace. 

[Danny]

Unions for transport workers considering shutting down trains and buses for their employees and the public’s safety. Would be the right thing to do seeing as the government sent everyone out to work without a care

[Stan]

1 hour ago, Danny said:

Unions for transport workers considering shutting down trains and buses for their employees and the public’s safety. Would be the right thing to do seeing as the government sent everyone out to work without a care

Feel sorry for the key-workers that still do have to get to work using public transport (as they have for last 7-8 weeks anyway) and now can't because of poor advice and if the trains/bus services are shut down. 

 

[Stan]

Quote

 

India and Pakistan to make virus drug remdesivir

A US pharmaceutical firm has signed agreements with drug makers in South Asia to expand supply of the drug remdesivir for treating Covid-19.

The agreement between Gilead and five generic pharmaceutical companies in India and Pakistan will help make the medicine for 127 countries.

Remdesivir cut the duration of symptoms from 15 days to 11 in clinical trials at hospitals around the world. The antiviral drug was originally developed as an Ebola treatment.

A clinical trial of the drug by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases led to favourable results.

But their impact on deaths is not as clear-cut and the BBC's health and science correspondent James Gallagher says it is also not yet clear who is benefiting from the drug.

 

 

[Bluebird Hewitt]

10 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Sweden‘a got way less population density than the UK, it’s going to spread slower in a less densely populated country. The UK has significantly higher population density.

While Wales has had its fair share of deaths, looking at the country by health board area shows that mid and west Wales has much less deaths. 

[Harry]

6 hours ago, Harvsky said:

Sweden's epidemiologists took the view early on that they needed to flatten the curve until a vaccine came along and in case a vaccine did not come along. That take was common in the west, including the UK. Lockdown's occurred for fear of health care services not fear of life. The result of lockdown in some countries is that they now believe they can suppress the virus until it no longer exists, without needing to achieve herd immunity. Swedish scientists insist this isn't possible in a globalised world. 

We are all at a cross roads now. Do you suppress the virus to kick it out of your country (South Korea, New Zealand) or do you slowly allow the population to get infected until herd immunity is achieved (Sweden).

This is where the latest estimates that only 5% of France and Spain, 11% of Madrid having had the virus means allowing further infection could take the death toll for those countries into the hundreds of thousands without a vaccine. 

That would be consistent with an infection mortality rate of 0.8 to 1.1%, which from recollection was similar to the antibody test in New York.

You wonder though, if thats a reasonable ball park mortality figure for a first world country with a non collapsed healthcare system, what could that death rate be if ten times more people were infected at once and there just weren't nearly enough ventilators... Does it double? 

[Carnivore Chris]

This is why fist bumping has always been better than hand shaking as well .

 

 

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

3 hours ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

While Wales has had its fair share of deaths, looking at the country by health board area shows that mid and west Wales has much less deaths. 

Isn't Wales mostly populated in the northeast and valleys? That would sort of back up that claim about population density being a big factor in how this thing spreads (although... I think that's pretty self-explanatory - highly infectious disease + people coming into contact with one another more frequently = more cases).

 

2 hours ago, Harry said:

You wonder though, if thats a reasonable ball park mortality figure for a first world country with a non collapsed healthcare system, what could that death rate be if ten times more people were infected at once and there just weren't nearly enough ventilators... Does it double? 

Isn't that exactly what happened with Italy? I think Italy's healthcare system is ranked #2 in the world, I think they're considered a first world country (although that whole first world thing is sort of a carryover from the cold war and I don't think is super meaningful nowadays tbh), and they didn't have enough ventilators for the huge number of cases they had.

[Bluebird Hewitt]

18 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Isn't Wales mostly populated in the northeast and valleys? That would sort of back up that claim about population density being a big factor in how this thing spreads (although... I think that's pretty self-explanatory - highly infectious disease + people coming into contact with one another more frequently = more cases).

More in the south and south east. Basically from Swansea to Newport and the surrounding valleys are the main density areas. The north has Wrexham and other towns but not as much as the south. 

I read somewhere that my area (Rhondda-Cynon-Taff) apparently has the highest amount of cases per 100k population in the UK, let alone Wales. However, that might have changed since then. 

Here's the death chart based on health board area. 

Edited May 14, 2020 by Bluebird Hewitt

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 minutes ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

More in the south and south east. Basically from Swansea to Newport and the surrounding valleys are the main density areas. The north has Wrexham and other towns but not as much as the south. 

I read somewhere that my area (Rhondda-Cynon-Taff) apparently has the highest amount of cases per 100k population in the UK, let alone Wales. However, that might have changed since then. 

Here's the death chart based on health board area. 

 

I meant southeast but typed northeast, whoops. Must've be my northern bias 

[Bluebird Hewitt]

1 minute ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I meant southeast but typed northeast, whoops. Must've be my northern bias 

Sure you did. 

In fairness, the North does have a decent amount, though that could be more due to the area BCU covers compared to the south. 

[Mpache]

We are utterly pathetic 

 

[Bluebird Hewitt]

Bit of a meh article but I'll post it here anyway. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52662119

[Carnivore Chris]

1 hour ago, Inti Brian said:

We are utterly pathetic 

 

Still doesn't beat @nudge's favourites though, the smurfs:-

[Stan]

2 hours ago, Inti Brian said:

We are utterly pathetic 

 

Thought Peru was the best at everything especially during Covid-19 ?

 

Also, thought you were Canadian now ? 

[Mpache]

22 minutes ago, Carnivore Chris said:

Still doesn't beat @nudge's favourites though, the smurfs:-

I swear we are the only country to arrest all of our presidents as well as Super Mario.

[Beelzebub]

[Stan]

 

 

@Bluebird Hewitt this true? 

 

[Stan]

27 minutes ago, Azeem said:

They've learnt to shut their windows... 

[Danny]

6 minutes ago, Stan said:

 

 

@Bluebird Hewitt this true? 

 

According to the Mirror

[MUFC]

20 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Its not gonna be a conspiracy where healthcare workers are conspiring to gerrymander the cause of deaths to Covid18. That is not reality. Healthcare workers are just normal people with hard jobs.

Nobody can refute your friend of a friend's account without more info, but there's a few things possible...

1. COVID is a severe respiratory infection, which hospitalizes many and is particularly lethal for people with preexisting conditions. High blood pressure, diabetes, asthma etc. If you have high blood pressure, get a severe case of COVID, are hospitalised, on a ventilator and ultimately your heart gives out first, is that complete fabrication and bullshit if that death is recorded as a COVID death? I'd suggest not. Because ultimately what the health services are trying to get a handle on and build an accurate data set is how many people are dying because of COVID, that wouldn't otherwise have died. Recording that data accurately will give accurate data to then be able to gauge the potential impact if the virus ripped through the community en masse.

2. Possibly there is a two tier system for moving bodies out through the hospital system due to the temporary arrangements in place to manage the Covid situation. It may actually be that a COVID body gets out faster. If someone said the only way to get the body out quicker is if they died of COVID that could be a true statement said with grim humour, or an outrageously dumb serious suggestion. Or its evidence of a global conspiracy which a fuck ton of good honest healthcare workers would need to be in on.

Your Sweden issue. It's about an eighth the size of the UK. It's biggest city a tenth the size of London. It's one of the least densely populated countries in Europe (see first image). Those things determine the rate of spread along with the usual factors like level of lockdown etc.

Bottom line the best basis for comparison to Sweden is with other Scandinavian countries which have adopted lockdown arrangements more aligned with the rest of Europe. See image 2 for that.

Kudos on Sweden and how the UK is densely populated in comparison. In the UK we seem to forget this including myself when we compare to other countries.

Anyway the point I was making about my friend stretches further then this. I posted around 6 weeks back on this thread. My uncle who is a consultant which is high up as you can get. He told me himself that patients who weren't dying of the virus had their deaths put down to the virus. My neighbors daughter who works in an NHS hospital told me the same thing as have 2 other friends who are working  on the front line. Obviously I don't see why workers on the front line would have anything to gain from saying these things.

Another point is regarding  Chloe Middleton who at the time was the youngest to die of the virus at 21. I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure the staff treating her said she never died of the virus but the coroner put it down as Coronavirus. But I may be wrong on this.

[...Dan]

18 minutes ago, MUFC said:

Kudos on Sweden and how the UK is densely populated in comparison. In the UK we seem to forget this including myself when we compare to other countries.

Anyway the point I was making about my friend stretches further then this. I posted around 6 weeks back on this thread. My uncle who is a consultant which is high up as you can get. He told me himself that patients who weren't dying of the virus had their deaths put down to the virus. My neighbors daughter who works in an NHS hospital told me the same thing as have 2 other friends who are working  on the front line. Obviously I don't see why workers on the front line would have anything to gain from saying these things.

Another point is regarding  Chloe Middleton who at the time was the youngest to die of the virus at 21. I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure the staff treating her said she never died of the virus but the coroner put it down as Coronavirus. But I may be wrong on this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52124004

In a series of widely-reported social media posts following her death, Ms Middleton's family said she "had passed away from Covid-19" and urged others to "do your bit" to stop the spread.

[LFCMike]

5 hours ago, MUFC said:

Kudos on Sweden and how the UK is densely populated in comparison. In the UK we seem to forget this including myself when we compare to other countries.

Anyway the point I was making about my friend stretches further then this. I posted around 6 weeks back on this thread. My uncle who is a consultant which is high up as you can get. He told me himself that patients who weren't dying of the virus had their deaths put down to the virus. My neighbors daughter who works in an NHS hospital told me the same thing as have 2 other friends who are working  on the front line. Obviously I don't see why workers on the front line would have anything to gain from saying these things.

Another point is regarding  Chloe Middleton who at the time was the youngest to die of the virus at 21. I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure the staff treating her said she never died of the virus but the coroner put it down as Coronavirus. But I may be wrong on this.

It doesn't make sense that they would be doing this though. The numbers don't add up.

Over 50,000 more people have now died in the last couple of months than in the same period last year or the year before or the year before that (I think it may be a lot more than 50,000 now actually). We know that about 33,000 of them are Covid-19. What about the rest?

They're certainly not over reporting the numbers linked to Covid-19. There will be a lot more. It's pretty obvious that a lot of the deaths that are yet to be explained will be Covid-19

[Honey Honey]

R rate in London is below 0.4. Fewer than 24 cases per day according to PHE and Cambridge University research.

[Stan]

27 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

R rate in London is below 0.4. Fewer than 24 cases per day according to PHE and Cambridge University research.

I find that hard to believe. PHE and Cambridge know nothing.