Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Harry]

1 hour ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

That's what local lockdowns should have done and considering the majority of Wales are under these restrictions (even one that went into local lockdown on the basis of single figure cases at that time), it's clear that they haven't worked. 

The issue for us is that Wales is highly dependent on hospitality and tourism, which this lockdown (as well as slow relaxing of restrictions) would start to cripple us, especially as we also have a travel ban in place from hot-spot areas of the UK. 

The only way I could see this being ok is if the 'circuit breaker' shows a significant reduction (despite some saying that it'll have no benefit and just cause more detriment to people) by the time it's supposed to end and all local lockdown restrictions are removed.

Unfortunately, this is the Welsh Government and as shown with Caerphilly, I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to extend it week by week until the new year (so that Drakeford can continue his unnecessary iron grip on Wales), blame England/students/the community/Bluewolf/anyone but themselves, beg for more money from the same government they've played politics against and continue to do so if it gets rejected. 

I'm sure your lockdowns will have reduced the rate of growth from what it otherwise would have been. There's no question that they do that, and that all of the things many have been doing since February (like office workers working from home) have been slowing the natural rate of growth.

But the bottom line as I see it is:

1. its still an upwards trend that grows more than linearly with any partial lockdown measures. Only full lockdown measures seem to really kill the curve and drive it actively downwards.

2. If Covid exists at all in a population it will always be rising in that kind of way.

3. There's a point at which contact tracing facilities are overloaded, (which for us was of the order of 50-100 cases a day), and they shift from being able to be across every contact for the entire incubation period through to just doing the best they can in the circumstances.

4. There's a point at which hospitals are overloaded, at which point your mortality will increase significantly with competition for ICU beds.

Other than the above its really a question of how much death your society is willing to accept, and how much lockdown pain. And thats something which is not generally being debated in a helpful pragmatic way, but rather avoided or treated with absolutism, and everything being therefore more chaotic.

[MUFC]

National lockdown for Wales.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54598136

[Bluebird Hewitt]

2 hours ago, Harry said:

I'm sure your lockdowns will have reduced the rate of growth from what it otherwise would have been. There's no question that they do that, and that all of the things many have been doing since February (like office workers working from home) have been slowing the natural rate of growth.

But the bottom line as I see it is:

1. its still an upwards trend that grows more than linearly with any partial lockdown measures. Only full lockdown measures seem to really kill the curve and drive it actively downwards.

2. If Covid exists at all in a population it will always be rising in that kind of way.

3. There's a point at which contact tracing facilities are overloaded, (which for us was of the order of 50-100 cases a day), and they shift from being able to be across every contact for the entire incubation period through to just doing the best they can in the circumstances.

4. There's a point at which hospitals are overloaded, at which point your mortality will increase significantly with competition for ICU beds.

Other than the above its really a question of how much death your society is willing to accept, and how much lockdown pain. And thats something which is not generally being debated in a helpful pragmatic way, but rather avoided or treated with absolutism, and everything being therefore more chaotic.

Something I forgot to mention that we won't be able to cover the cost of businesses and staff like the furlough scheme when this lockdown happens (length dependent of course). Drakeford even said as much when our main one happened. While Australia is able to do what it needs to do economically, Wales can only do it to an extent

In regards to the part in bold, this is partially why the lockdown is not making sense. While our cases have almost hit four figures, our deaths have hit around 20 odd at most in a single day (as an example, we had 950 new cases but only 3 deaths). This has pretty much been the case since the beginning to middle of September. 

And as I type this, we are offically going into lockdown as of Friday from 6pm and will continue until 9th November, exactly like the leaked letter mentioned. Nice of Welsh Labour to inform their union buddies first before the general public are informed. 

No gatherings of people at all (except for those who live alone, who can join one other household), exercise is permitted, all non-essential shops to close (there goes my dad's job), primary schools to stay open, (as well as Years 7 and 8 in secondary school) and even universities and colleges (despite our lot blaming students of an increase in cases ). 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54598136

This is developing so more is likely at some point. The universities and colleges staying open for students is laughable when those in Years 9 to 13 (you know, those to sit GCSE's and A Levels) will not be able to have that education. 

£300m will be provided to businesses affected by this, to which businesses covered by a small business rates relief will get £1k payment, while small and medium sized retail, leisure and hospitality businesses which must close (by the Welsh Government) will receive a one off payment of up to £5k. Jesus fucking Christ. 

We've regressed back to March and April. Given how our government act, this will probably continue until the new year and they'll beg the UK Government for more cash. 

EDIT: Today's figures. 626 new cases and one death. Make of that what you will. 

Edited October 19, 2020 by Bluebird Hewitt

[Harry]

 

[Harry]

[Bluebird Hewitt]

That took long. 

Welsh Government confirming that they want to continue pissing with people's lives by mentioning that further 'firebreaks' (despite not being or even knowing if the current one will be successful) cannot be ruled out in the new year. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-54614002

All while the cheeky cunts play party politics (again) and tell the UK Treasury that people in Wales could be made redundant if they don't change the support for workers during our lockdown. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-54607893

Let's remind ourselves. The Welsh Government order this 'firebreak'/'circuitbreak'/'wankbreak' /lockdown for Wales (no one else) and now expect to jump the queue for support. 

[The Artful Dodger]

Good little work around if anyone is craving a few pints with their mates. Working lunches are allowed, so if you set yourself up a Limited Company (easy and free), make your mates directors and you can have 10 pints in a boozer along with a meal.

[Danny]

Surely now would be a good time to close everything down for a bit and prioritise getting a test and trace system that works ready?

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 minutes ago, Danny said:

Surely now would be a good time to close everything down for a bit and prioritise getting a test and trace system that works ready?

Yeah, I mean the best time for that was a few months ago... but since we didn’t we should be doing that sooner rather than later.

[Bluewolf]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Yeah, I mean the best time for that was a few months ago... but since we didn’t we should be doing that sooner rather than later.

You had the Covid test didn't you mate?? 

[Dr. Gonzo]

54 minutes ago, Bluewolf said:

You had the Covid test didn't you mate?? 

Yeah, but here there’s just about minimal tracing going on. So had I tested positive (I didn’t) - I think just my work would be notified and maybe the building where I live.

[Bluewolf]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Yeah, but here there’s just about minimal tracing going on. So had I tested positive (I didn’t) - I think just my work would be notified and maybe the building where I live.

I will assume that you got the Nose and Throat swab?? Did your nose bleed after having it done at all?? pretty uncomfortable the nose one, felt like they were trying to get a swab of my brain it was that far up.. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

17 minutes ago, Bluewolf said:

I will assume that you got the Nose and Throat swab?? Did your nose bleed after having it done at all?? pretty uncomfortable the nose one, felt like they were trying to get a swab of my brain it was that far up.. 

Yeah I had the same test - no nose bleed (thankfully), but yeah it felt like a brain swab 100% 

[Stan]

 

[Stan]

Manchester getting absolutely shafted tonight

How can £60m be the government offer and then it comes down to £22m just because the mayor wants the right thing done to support the people he is representing and make sure public and business in Greater Manchester are looked after if lockdown is put in place? It's not the fact he didn't want a Tier 3 status applied, just wanted businesses supported while Tier 3 in place. It's disgraceful how GM has been treated tonight and the government, again, have a lot to answer for. Pathetic shitstorm continues.

[The Artful Dodger]

Hard to know what’s going on with all the political brinkmanship. I can’t see how the government can offer any different proportionately to what Liverpool is getting. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by The Artful Dodger

[Dr. Gonzo]

No surprise that BoJo's government shows utter contempt for the North West tbh.

[LFCMike]

7 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

No surprise that BoJo's government shows utter contempt for the North West tbh.

Let's hope that those seats that went Tory last year remember that at the next election

[Happy Blue]

Shocking revelations about the ‘virus’ from the CDC itself

Dr Thomas Cowan: ‘The shocking thing … is that using their own methods, the virologists found that solutions containing SARS-CoV-2 — even in high amounts — were NOT, I repeat NOT, infective to any of the three human tissue cultures they tested. In plain English, this means they proved, on their terms, that this “new coronavirus” is not infectious to human beings. It is ONLY infective to monkey kidney cells, and only then when you add two potent drugs (gentamicin and amphotericin), known to be toxic to kidneys, to the mix.’

 

[LFCMike]

1 hour ago, Happy Blue said:

Shocking revelations about the ‘virus’ from the CDC itself

Dr Thomas Cowan: ‘The shocking thing … is that using their own methods, the virologists found that solutions containing SARS-CoV-2 — even in high amounts — were NOT, I repeat NOT, infective to any of the three human tissue cultures they tested. In plain English, this means they proved, on their terms, that this “new coronavirus” is not infectious to human beings. It is ONLY infective to monkey kidney cells, and only then when you add two potent drugs (gentamicin and amphotericin), known to be toxic to kidneys, to the mix.’

 

A quick Google of that headline brings up David Icke's Twitter as the first result. 

Go away

[Happy Blue]

51 minutes ago, LFCMike said:

A quick Google of that headline brings up David Icke's Twitter as the first result. 

Go away

Dr Thomas Cowan  ..does it matter who re-tweeted it?? 

Edited October 21, 2020 by Happy Blue

[LFCMike]

5 minutes ago, Happy Blue said:

Dr Thomas Cowan  ..does it matter who re-tweeted it?? 

Some dickhead who spread the 5G shite according to Google? 

[Happy Blue]

3 minutes ago, LFCMike said:

Some dickhead who spread the 5G shite according to Google? 

Well you can lead a sheep to water but we cant make you drink   ..get ready to be chipped, zoned off and enslaved 

[Bluebird Hewitt]

17 hours ago, Stan said:

Manchester getting absolutely shafted tonight

How can £60m be the government offer and then it comes down to £22m just because the mayor wants the right thing done to support the people he is representing and make sure public and business in Greater Manchester are looked after if lockdown is put in place? It's not the fact he didn't want a Tier 3 status applied, just wanted businesses supported while Tier 3 in place. It's disgraceful how GM has been treated tonight and the government, again, have a lot to answer for. Pathetic shitstorm continues.

I admittedly haven't been following this fully, but is the amount being demanded by Burnham more or less than other areas such as Liverpool are receiving? 

If it's less then I can understand why he'd be pissed and he's fully right to question it. However, if they've received more than others then you have to question whether it was more a case of what Greater Manchester actually needed or whether it was a political power play as Dodger mentioned a little. 

[Stan]

14 minutes ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

I admittedly haven't been following this fully, but is the amount being demanded by Burnham more or less than other areas such as Liverpool are receiving? 

If it's less then I can understand why he'd be pissed and he's fully right to question it. However, if they've received more than others then you have to question whether it was more a case of what Greater Manchester actually needed or whether it was a political power play as Dodger mentioned a little. 

Proportionally, less, I think.