Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Danny]

On 29/12/2020 at 22:55, The Artful Dodger said:

I know there are many people flouting the rules without a care but I still can’t get myself angry about another person not wearing a mask, for a simple fact I don’t know they have a reason not to do so and that it would be none of my business if they do. 

 

 

Plenty of reasons for people not to wear a mask, it’s the people who half wear one under their nose or will into a shop with their sleeve or collar over their faces that do my head in

[Inverted]

23 hours ago, Burning Gold said:

I read somewhere they're changing strategy to get as many people 1 dose as possible and then worry about the second afterwards, rather than making sure everyone who gets one dose also gets the second in 28 days. Makes sense as there was evidence that one dose gets you some level of resistance to the virus, but I wonder if there's a maximum time limit in which you have to get the second dose for it to work.

For instance I got an injection for something (I want to say yellow fever but could be wrong) where it gave me 2 years immunity but if I got a booster within six months it would be permanent.

I am not sure  if it makes a difference to how long it lasts, but I believe dose 1 gives you immunity just over 90%, and dose 2 takes you to near 100%.

So the choice is between gradually giving people almost total immunity, or quickly giving people pretty decent immunity.

Edited December 31, 2020 by Inverted

[Stan]

5 minutes ago, Inverted said:

I am not sure  if it makes a difference to how long it lasts, but I believe dose 1 gives you immunity just over 90%, and dose 2 takes you to near 100%.

So the choice is between gradually giving people almost total immunity, or quickly giving people pretty decent immunity.

Thought with one of the vaccines 1 dose gives you 52% and the 2nd dose gives 90+%? Think it might have been the Oxford one or maybe they improved it. 

 

My missus is having her vaccine through work next Wednesday, then they book the 2nd one in while she attends the 1st dose appointment, but has been warned it can be up to 3 months before that 2nd dose happens... 

[Burning Gold]

1 hour ago, Inverted said:

I am not sure  if it makes a difference to how long it lasts, but I believe dose 1 gives you immunity just over 90%, and dose 2 takes you to near 100%.

So the choice is between gradually giving people almost total immunity, or quickly giving people pretty decent immunity.

I've read 52%, 80%, and now 90%. Obviously the correct figure is important. 80 or 90% would make it a sound strategy; 52% would be stupid, especially as we don't know if it stops you actually getting it and being infectious. I don't even know that we've done the tests to get that figure. Have we done studies on dose 1 on its own in the wild for longer than 3 weeks and got sufficient data to put a figure on it, or are we just using the data from the people in clinical trials who happened to get covid symptoms in the 3 weeks between doses 1 and 2?

[RandoEFC+]

 

[nudge]

45 minutes ago, Burning Gold said:

I've read 52%, 80%, and now 90%. Obviously the correct figure is important. 80 or 90% would make it a sound strategy; 52% would be stupid, especially as we don't know if it stops you actually getting it and being infectious. I don't even know that we've done the tests to get that figure. Have we done studies on dose 1 on its own in the wild for longer than 3 weeks and got sufficient data to put a figure on it, or are we just using the data from the people in clinical trials who happened to get covid symptoms in the 3 weeks between doses 1 and 2?

It's the latter. All those numbers are estimates based on what we’ve seen with the interval between doses in the two-dose studies. No studies have been specifically done on efficacy of a single dose; not for Pfizer/BioNTech, not for Moderna, not for AstraZeneca/Oxford. However, that limited trial data suggests moderate to high efficacy after a single dose; the main issue seems to be lack of data on how long does the immunity last, whether it fades away much faster without the second booster dose, and whether a longer delay between the two doses is significantly detrimental for long-term immunity. More data would be nice, but either way, the limited data we do have seems to suggest that a single dose is enough to prevent severe cases and significantly reduce hospitalisations for weeks (longest interval between the two doses was 26 weeks in the AZ/Oxford trials), which is pretty encouraging.

The only vaccine that has trialed a one-dose protocol is the Johnson & Johnson one, the data should be available any time now, and they are also running an additional two-dose protocol trials, so that should be very useful in providing a direct comparison of a single vs multiple dose regimens.

[Burning Gold]

7 minutes ago, nudge said:

It's the latter. All those numbers are estimates based on what we’ve seen with the interval between doses in the two-dose studies. No studies have been specifically done on efficacy of a single dose; not for Pfizer/BioNTech, not for Moderna, not for AstraZeneca/Oxford. However, that limited trial data suggests moderate to high efficacy after a single dose; the main issue seems to be lack of data on how long does the immunity last, whether it fades away much faster without the second booster dose, and whether a longer delay between the two doses is significantly detrimental for long-term immunity. More data would be nice, but either way, the limited data we do have seems to suggest that a single dose is enough to prevent severe cases and significantly reduce hospitalisations for weeks (longest interval between the two doses was 26 weeks in the AZ/Oxford trials), which is pretty encouraging.

The only vaccine that has trialed a one-dose protocol is the Johnson & Johnson one, the data should be available any time now, and they are also running an additional two-dose protocol trials, so that should be very useful in providing a direct comparison of a single vs multiple dose regimens.

Brilliant as always from you. I had suspected as much. My hope is that the decision is being made with that limited trial data and data (e.g. J&J) that isn't public yet but is being passed around the community, but with this government's love for short-term PR boosts, my worry is that the temptation to double the "people vaccinated" number is just too high. I think it's the former in this case because the potential consequences for the latter are too grave, but I'm internally chastising myself for giving them the benefit of the doubt

Edited December 31, 2020 by Burning Gold

[El Profesor]

This is the best article I´ve read about the coronavirus. Lawrence Wright is a brilliant writer.

It´s really long, but there´s also an audio version for those prefer it (it´s more than 3 hours long, btw). 

Probably the best pice of writting of 2020. Just amazing.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/01/04/the-plague-year

Edited January 1, 2021 by El Profesor

[Mpache]

Peru still without any vaccines, as always we are behind in line. Even Brazil who had their president say the vaccines will turn people into alligators are on good course. I just hope we sort it as I want to go back and see everyone again. Even if I get vaccinated here, it doesn't keep them safe from it.

[RandoEFC+]

The Department for Education now keeping all London primary schools closed except for key workers' children instead of one rule for some boroughs and another for the rest. Another u-turn where they've ended up doing the right thing which people who actually know stuff told them to do weeks ago. Headteachers now left redrawing their plans between New Years Day and the weekend before schools are supposed to go back.

It'll be interesting to see what policy looks like on Monday morning because you can bet that it will have changed again by then.

It's almost fun trying to guess what else Gavin Williamson could get completely wrong without losing his job. Like making Chuck Norris jokes.

[Stan]

21 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

The Department for Education now keeping all London primary schools closed except for key workers' children instead of one rule for some boroughs and another for the rest. Another u-turn where they've ended up doing the right thing which people who actually know stuff told them to do weeks ago. Headteachers now left redrawing their plans between New Years Day and the weekend before schools are supposed to go back.

It'll be interesting to see what policy looks like on Monday morning because you can bet that it will have changed again by then.

It's almost fun trying to guess what else Gavin Williamson could get completely wrong without losing his job. Like making Chuck Norris jokes.

 

[Stan]

Does this worry anyone else?! 

 

[DeadLinesman]

13 minutes ago, Stan said:

Does this worry anyone else?! 

 

With the exception of the NYT posting this, I’ve seen no evidence to suggest this is happening or even will happen. I read they were trialling it a while back, but that’s about it.

Edit: Just read the updated guidance. Fuck me.

[Stan]

3 minutes ago, DeadLinesman said:

With the exception of the NYT posting this, I’ve seen no evidence to suggest this is happening or even will happen. I read they were trialling it a while back, but that’s about it.

I've taken the 'no smoke without fire' aspect of it and the fact our government don't usually like to listen to the science as much as they like to say they do. The JCVI advise not giving different vaccines out each time and having the same 2nd vaccine as the first. Mainly because it's not proven how successful it is and how long any efficacy of it lasts. Something this article 'suggests' we may do though if it comes to it...? 

[Stan]

This thread helps clear some things up I was worried about to be honest.

 

[SchalkeUK]

10 hours ago, Stan said:

Does this worry anyone else?! 

 

I have now dropped off the list for the moment so simple answer is (being very selfish) no! Just waiting for Trump to blame deaths on the English virus and invade the Isle of Wight.The French Rave party was the most stupid of all things happening recently and the UK guys who went there should be made to isolate on Port Mor if the Scots will have them!

[Stan]

Johnson to make an announcement at 8pm.

Probably announce a lockdown. Sturgeon has announced a 1-month lockdown for Scotland earlier today already. 

[MUFC]

2 hours ago, Stan said:

Johnson to make an announcement at 8pm.

Probably announce a lockdown. Sturgeon has announced a 1-month lockdown for Scotland earlier today already. 

A few doctors I know have said some agencies have confirmed it will be lockdown from midnight tonight.

[Stan]

 

 

[N U F C]

What is a lockdown in comparison to what we are experiencing in tier 4 at the moment? Is it simply closing the schools and that's it?

[RandoEFC+]

Not before time.

[MUFC]

40 minutes ago, N U F C said:

What is a lockdown in comparison to what we are experiencing in tier 4 at the moment? Is it simply closing the schools and that's it?

Might be like the summer one where they close all retail stores.

[Stan]

2 minutes ago, MUFC said:

Might be like the summer one where they close all retail stores.

Pretty much shut for all Tier 4 areas now anyway.

[Smiley Culture]

Boris Johnson is a cock. That is all. 

[Stan]

Johnson says he hopes top 4 priorities for vaccinations will be vaccinated by mid-Feb. That's the hope anyway. 

Promising but how many people is that? I'd love for it to happen but how realistic is it?