Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[El Profesor]

A good thread on why it´s so tough for governments to decide when to pull the trigger on more severe measures. 

Even at the peak of the cases in Wuhan, only 1% to 5% of its population was exposed to coronavirus. The rest of the population still isn´t immune to it. Some governments may delay adopting a Wuhan or Italy-like quarantine so that more people are exposed to the virus and acquire immunity. It´s a risk strategy, obviously. But you can´t quarantine a region or a country indefinitely, so picking the best time to do it is very important.

I remember @Dr. Gonzo mentioning about a 2nd wave and this seem to be danger of not giving enough time for a "collective immunity" to be acquired. It was the 2nd wave that was the most lethal in 1918-19.

It´s a shit sandwich, no easy decisions. 

 

 

 

[nudge]

6 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

I was talking to a doctor today who worked in R&D for a medical analyser company and he told me the following.

kids and pets pass on diseases rapidly as poor hygiene if we close schools who will provide child care while parents work? Most likely grandparents  and that’s the most vulnerable for influenza. So we could be pouring fuel on the fire. 

far better is if we allow the healthy population to get it recover and build up immunity within the population so if we do spike we have a % of the population to ensure essential services continue. 

old people and people with pre existing health complaints need to be wary the rest of us shouldn’t care. He also said that large events don’t make much difference as it’s fluid swapping 

italy and other med countries don’t have colder climes so less immunity to influenza style illnesses plus high % smokers do they will be disproportionately higher death rates. 

tbh it made sense to me and I agree, we’ve agree to not visit grandparents if things get bad and we’ll do shopping for them if they get ill etc 
 

also said he had a friend in Italy and everybody had a chest infection 

A lot of it might make sense but the part in bold about fluid swapping? Is it just bad wording? It's mainly transmitted through respiratory droplets dispersed in the air and on surfaces so I don't see how he can claim that large gatherings of people standing close to each other don't make much difference. That's exactly how various clusters of infections appeared in numerous countries - being in close proximity to infected people; similar to other respiratory illnesses.

[Mpache]

One thing that's really pissing me off is that "first world mentality" from South Americans living abroad. My parents think Canada is doing a great job at containing this, but the Ontario government only cancelled classes today and still haven't stopped large gatherings. I said they were doing a good job a few days ago, but I'm beginning to turn my head. They are taking too long to react.

South America on the other hand, is trying to stop the problem before it gets worse. It took Peru 10 cases to ban everything. Canada when they hit 100 still stood by.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Inti Brian

[Bluebird Hewitt]

18 minutes ago, nudge said:

A lot of it might make sense but the part in bold about fluid swapping? Is it just bad wording? It's mainly transmitted through respiratory droplets dispersed in the air and on surfaces so I don't see how he can claim that large gatherings of people standing close to each other don't make much difference. That's exactly how various clusters of infections appeared in numerous countries - being in close proximity to infected people; similar to other respiratory illnesses.

Strangely, I've read something similar here. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/51859553

This strikes me as strange as we're being told not to shake hands, be within certain distance of people etc, yet the chances of being infected at large events (which, last I checked, involved people being close to you) is........... low? 

[Machado]

France closes all schools, quarantines all citizens older than 70 to their homes.

 

[Machado]

 

[Harry]

3 hours ago, Eco said:

I have heard that this may not be the case. Italy has just tested more people and and thus had more confirmed cases. I believe they were the first to control crowds, delay the league, and take extra measures. 

It seems like they have done a good job considering the fact, and just because they are reporting more cases, doesn't mean countries like Germany and France don't have as many effected people (but just not diagnosed).

They are the epicenter of the European outbreak though so it's natural they would be ahead of where everyone else was at. I think they were struggling to gauge the extent of their initial problem and this led to them being slow to respond.

[Eco]

1 minute ago, Machado said:

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you only need to be tested if you have any symptoms correct? If that's the case, then certainly you can't blame the US as we just started getting hit with this virus a couple of weeks ago after Europe and Asia got infected. 

[Machado]

 

[nudge]

8 minutes ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

Strangely, I've read something similar here. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/51859553

This strikes me as strange as we're being told not to shake hands, be within certain distance of people etc, yet the chances of being infected at large events (which, last I checked, involved people being close to you) is........... low? 

Yeah, I can understand the reasoning behind not wanting to implement drastic measures (especially from the economic impact point of view) but it's the claim that large events don't make much difference that baffles me, especially since social distancing has been touted as one of the ways to reduce transmission (and especially super-spreader events)  by pretty much everyone else. 

[Mpache]

In some good news...

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/487302-expert-coronavirus-pandemic-could-end-by-june-if

 

 

[Machado]

2 minutes ago, Eco said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you only need to be tested if you have any symptoms correct? If that's the case, then certainly you can't blame the US as we just started getting hit with this virus a couple of weeks ago after Europe and Asia got infected. 

An informative read https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/3/12/21175034/coronavirus-covid-19-testing-usa

[Harry]

11 minutes ago, Eco said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you only need to be tested if you have any symptoms correct? If that's the case, then certainly you can't blame the US as we just started getting hit with this virus a couple of weeks ago after Europe and Asia got infected. 

South Korea have nearly tested more people per day than the US has in its entirety, and from what I see they are really lagging behind understanding where the true numbers are at, which I think stems from them wanting to keep the numbers low early on in line with Trump's desire not to hear bad news.

 

[Machado]

First full town quarantines in Spain: Igualada, Villanova del Cami, Montbui, Odena - 70,000 people total, all in Catalonia @Carnivore Chris

[Mpache]

The responses to this gave me Coronavirus.

We really need to start listening to experts.

 

[Machado]

Brazil's communications director for president Jair Bolsonaro who met Trump last weekend tests positive @El Profesor

Edited March 12, 2020 by Machado

[Mpache]

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, Fairy In Boots said:

He also said that large events don’t make much difference as it’s fluid swapping 

I think that fluid includes droplets from coughs and shite like that, rather than French kissing or anything. I don't think the 50 cases in New York that all stemmed from one lawyers office involved 50 people swapping fluids with their lawyer, most likely the lawyer felt he had a cold so he covered his mouth while he coughed and sneezed - but still shook his clients hands.

Seems like common sense to me to avoid large gatherings of people right now. The long incubation period means people can be carrying the virus and not show any signs at all, while passing it on. And so many people who've had the "it's just a cold/flu" mentality or the "I'm young, fuck it it won't affect me" are going to lead to having it pass on.

Italy didn't really take it seriously until too late, but in China and South Korea we've seen 2 very different methods at containment show signs of success. South Korea's done it through government transparency and people listening to the rules that have been imposed on them and taking it seriously; China's done it by just being authoritarian AF. Neither of those I can really see happening in the West unfortunately. I think it's mostly up to us as individuals, rather than hoping our governments will step in to help us, to slow the spread of this disease, given our culture. But unfortunately, given our culture... I'd also say it's unlikely that most people will be willing to follow medical advice and back out of social events planned.

I think we should be looking at Italy and learning from their mistakes.

I do think it's pretty worrying for the US that the mortality rate is about double the next highest country. Granted the stats might be skewed that one of the first places it showed up in the US was an elderly care facility.

[Mpache]

USA is so opinionated and gets all the stick. They've done pretty poorly in this whole situation, but the UK have done worse and are looking to become more vurnerable. Some shocking decisions made by them and yet the USA in seen in a worse light just because they talk too much.

[Stan]

1 minute ago, Inti Brian said:

USA is so opinionated and gets all the stick. They've done pretty poorly in this whole situation, but the UK have done worse and are looking to become more vurnerable. Some shocking decisions made by them and yet the USA in seen in a worse light just because they talk too much.

How have we done worse?

[Mpache]

Just now, Stan said:

How have we done worse?

Obviously the cases currently don't represent this, but the complacency of your government is worrying. Letting those Atletico Madrid fans at Anfield, allowing the PL to go ahead, and not banning public gatherings. It's a bit worrying. 

[Fairy In Boots]

1 hour ago, nudge said:

A lot of it might make sense but the part in bold about fluid swapping? Is it just bad wording? It's mainly transmitted through respiratory droplets dispersed in the air and on surfaces so I don't see how he can claim that large gatherings of people standing close to each other don't make much difference. That's exactly how various clusters of infections appeared in numerous countries - being in close proximity to infected people; similar to other respiratory illnesses.

Yes bad wording, passed by fluid droplets but they believe half a dozen people per infected so 10000 in a stadium aren’t all at risk. He did say a government will never admit it but they want healthy people to get this to build immunity 

53 minutes ago, Machado said:

France closes all schools, quarantines all citizens older than 70 to their homes.

 

So he can go round and visit the grannies himself? 

1 hour ago, Stan said:

I'd be severely against saying 'we shouldn't care'. 

We all need to be responsible and ensure we don't pass it on even if we may not feel the symptoms straight away.

Nah tbh they are paying £4K if you want to get it for testing I’d recommend getting it if you’re healthy enough. Recovered people will be  needed it if it peaks to help manage. 

[nudge]

1 minute ago, Fairy In Boots said:

Yes bad wording, passed by fluid droplets but they believe half a dozen people per infected so 10000 in a stadium aren’t all at risk. He did say a government will never admit it but they want healthy people to get this to build immunity 

Yeah that makes sense; but I think it's a very risky gamble considering that the course of the illness can be relatively long even in healthy people and that we don't know much about the immunity after recovery - there's some evidence that reinfections do happen (but it could be due to testing failures instead of actual reinfection so it's hard to tell) which would suggest that the duration of immunity could be shorter than we'd expect it to be. Also there's a huge risk of overwhelming the healthcare system to a degree where it's not able to meet the needs of everyone. Your current data doesn't look too bad in that sense; only 20 cases in a serious or critical condition so far apparently; worth keeping an eye on how that develops in the next days.

So many unknowns; I definitely wouldn't want to be the one calling the shots in this situation to be honest.

[Dr. Gonzo]

Italian doctors are reporting success in treating it with arthritis medication.

[nudge]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Italian doctors are reporting success in treating it with arthritis medication.

That should help the ones in serious condition as they basically reduce the damage to the lungs and respiratory system which happens due to the immune system's overreaction to the virus - they do not kill the virus though. The idea is to use those (or similar ones) together in a cocktail with broad spectrum antivirals that target the virus itself; that's what China and some other Asian countries have been doing as well.

China sent a team of doctors and tons of medical equipment and supplies to Italy; hopefully that and sharing what they learned from dealing with the outbreak in Wuhan will be helpful to get it under control in Italy too.