Everton 2-1 Arsenal - Saturday 19th December, 2020

[Dan+]

25 minutes ago, LFCMadLad said:

So much so that he's in danger of ruining his managerial career before its even started.

Every argument to keep him in that job are based on things that you can't even quantify.

[Burning Gold]

1 hour ago, Stan said:

Begs the question why wasn't it? 

Honestly think they just didn't spot it before play restarted. I do sometimes think they should let managers/captains have two challenges or something for situations like that, but to be honest I'm bored of thinking about VAR 

It says something though that strict disciplinarian Mikel Arteta has had 3 players sent off in 3 games and then that today. Makes you wonder about Ozil. Does anyone really think they'd be this bad with him in the squad?

[RandoEFC+]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Both these clubs are big clubs, but one’s been languishing in mediocrity for a while and one’s sort of retained that big club identity. And both these managers were linked with both clubs before they took their jobs, I think with both clubs sort of taking the opposite approach than what I would have expected.

With Everton looking like the much better side here, imo... it sort of felt like a match where the two clubs have embraced their role reversal.

No idea if that’s true and it’s probably not and just me reading into it way hard. But I think this match season has Everton looking like their project is making some healthy progress. Meanwhile it looks like the long road ahead for Arsenal is just a bit longer.

I think you're pretty worried if you're an Arsenal fan. They should still finish in the top half probably. But Aubameyang, who isn't even having a good season, is their last link to a time where they'd finish at least in the top six every season. I don't want to get too carried away, they still won the FA Cup this year and several other times recently, and it's harder to fall as far from grace these days when Arsenal have the brand and stadium that comes with being successful in the Premier League era. They'll always have those advantages that teams like Southampton, Wolves, Brighton will never have, so I wouldn't expect to see Arsenal securing last day escapes from relegation like Everton did for much of the 90s, but they're a long way from the top now.

Right now I think they basically have one player of the quality you'd need to keep pace with the Liverpool and Manchester City's sides of the last few seasons. To restore themselves to where they want to be, they're an entire squad away. I hate to say it because Evertonians still have a lot of affection for Arteta, but the manager is now taking them backwards as well. Maybe behind closed doors, the board have said that they'll accept a couple of seasons of regression if that's what needed while he tears up everything that's gone rotten within the club. It's unlikely though, and even if they do have a verbal agreement to that effect, there has to be a point at which they say this is too much regression. The top clubs are built financially based on always being in the top few league positions.

The problem goes way beyond the manager, but he's the easiest one to get rid of. I don't think we're quite there yet but you get to a point of no return where perpetuating the relationship begins to damage the club and the manager individually with every passing game. They've got a decision to make.

[Chaaay AFC]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Each week it gets harder and harder to defend Arteta. Everton weren’t great, but I think they were still the better side.

I think Edu or whoever was responsible for his appointment look mental. I think those in charge need to do some real self evaluation and spend some time getting in a manager that makes sense for the short term and long term.

Apart from this two FA Cup performances last season, he has been totally underwhelming for the majority of his time here. We was absolutely shite for the most part last season and once again massively outperformed xG. Of course as soon as it started levelling out our true form has shown. 

I'm not defending the players here, they have as much of the blame and to be honest I can't stand a lot of them, but you can't tell me this is a 15th place squad. Absolutely shambolic and the club need to be looking at Edu and Vinai the CEO to. Time to start being serious club again and get some proper people in these positions, not some hail mary hires who have such little experience. 

[Stan]

7 minutes ago, Burning Gold said:

Honestly think they just didn't spot it before play restarted. I do sometimes think they should let managers/captains have two challenges or something for situations like that, but to be honest I'm bored of thinking about VAR 

It says something though that strict disciplinarian Mikel Arteta has had 3 players sent off in 3 games and then that today. Makes you wonder about Ozil. Does anyone really think they'd be this bad with him in the squad?

Not a chance. Ozil is a game changer, that one player who could proverbially turn those cogs. 

But he seems to be totally out of contention. Arsenal cutting their nose off to spite their face... 

[RandoEFC+]

On the Ceballos incident, it's one of those where, if nothing happens, the commentators and even, to be honest, the opposition fans just shrug it off, because it was a bit cunty but nothing really happened as a consequence of it. In this scenario, every refereeing "expert" up and down the country agrees that no punishment is the right call because of Reason X in the rulebook that you only know about if you're a super clever referee.

It's also one of those where if he gets sent off, the commentators and that team's fans can't really complain because it's "technically" a red card and "you can't do that in today's game". Players have been sent off for less. In this scenario, every refereeing "expert" up and down the country agrees that a red card is the right call because of Reason Y in the rulebook that you only know about if you're a super clever referee.

I personally wasn't arsed by the challenge. It did make me laugh when Ceballos went down screaming and clutching his hip right after because Mina bumped into him trying to stand back up. As much as I wallop them and take the piss, I'm a secondary teacher and sometimes I think refereeing a Premier League game is more similar to teaching a class of 22 teenagers than teaching a class of 22 teenagers is.

[6666]

If the players were with the manager then that would be one factor in me having some hope going forward but I don't think we even have that let alone having anything to build on regarding performances on the pitch.

[RandoEFC+]

This is a better stat than the Mina one. 

[Dan+]

Again, this is something that VAR has brought - it's not even the technology or officials itself, it's a culture change within the sport that we now forensically look at everything. It is the wrong road to go down. You're aiming for an unreachable goal.

[Burning Gold]

17 minutes ago, Stan said:

Not a chance. Ozil is a game changer, that one player who could proverbially turn those cogs. 

But he seems to be totally out of contention. Arsenal cutting their nose off to spite their face... 

Along with Aubameyang he's just levels above the rest of the squad and exactly what they need in terms of someone to bring a bit of creativity. I know he's being left out because of his attitude and discipline issues, but if you're going to leave someone of that quality out you'd better have a squad with a good attitude and discipline to show for it, and they just don't.

8 minutes ago, Dan said:

Again, this is something that VAR has brought - it's not even the technology or officials itself, it's a culture change within the sport that we now forensically look at everything. It is the wrong road to go down. You're aiming for an unreachable goal.

It's not. The past you're nostalgic for, when we didn't spend hours looking at 100 different replays, simply never existed. At least not since the invention of the video camera

[RandoEFC+]

Without a doubt the best thing about beating Arsenal.

[Dan+]

55 minutes ago, Burning Gold said:

Along with Aubameyang he's just levels above the rest of the squad and exactly what they need in terms of someone to bring a bit of creativity. I know he's being left out because of his attitude and discipline issues, but if you're going to leave someone of that quality out you'd better have a squad with a good attitude and discipline to show for it, and they just don't.

It's not. The past you're nostalgic for, when we didn't spend hours looking at 100 different replays, simply never existed. At least not since the invention of the video camera

VAR has 100% made it worse. It's beyond any reasonable doubt. We look at even more now than we did before. The problem now is we stop the game for these things, rather than just go on about them afterwards.

[LFCMike]

The London Grand Slam, hahaha fucking hell

[RandoEFC+]

3 hours ago, LFCMike said:

The London Grand Slam, hahaha fucking hell

[Rick]

Arsenal are really going to regret not snatching big Sam up when they had the chance. Going to need him come March time. 

[N U F C]

They aren't actually going to go down are they? 

They've got a better run of fixtures in January but if they struggle in them they could quite easily become embroiled.

[Rick]

28 minutes ago, shut up said:

Which match?

All of them. 

[Panna King]

When Arteta gets sacked, EDU needs to fuck off also, how dare he come out and say Arteta is doing a great job! I know there is supporting your coach but that just takes the piss! Arteta has spent over 100 million and still doesn't know his first team, his teams cant create anything and now are shipping goals.  If that is the standard EDU is happy to support a coach then he should be sacked on the spot!    Rumours coming out that senior players like Luiz, Willian are taking over due to the fact they have never seen a coach like Arteta, he has gone too far in trying to discipline the squad, other players have worked under top coaches and have not experienced this type of treatment by a rookie like Arteta.   Arteta has dug his own grave and should just be sacked for the sake of the club, it has been a disaster, the whole club is poison.

[Inverted]

One thing I don't really get about the Ozil situation is the reasoning that he apparently doesn't work enough off the ball and all that kind of thing. 

But with how Arsenal play, I don't see why that's such a big deal. I could understand Pep or Klopp or Poch dropping an Ozil-type player because he maybe can't press intensely enough. 

But Arteta tactically seems to be an extremely passive, reactive manager. His team don't really assert themselves at all out of possession. 

There's no reason you couldn't play Arteta's wide striker kind of system, have Ozil in the hole, and leave him up top while everyone else sinks back into the usual 5-4-1. Then at least when you get the ball back, there's someone who's a natural at getting the ball and linking up with runners from deep.

Ozil has played under defensive managers before and worked just fine. 

[Cicero]

Arsenal allowing Edu into going the super agent route and sacking the scouting team will and already has proved costly. 
 

Swore I posted this several months back. 

[Inverted]

1 minute ago, Cicero said:

Arsenal allowing Edu into going the super agent route and sacking the scouting team will and already has proved costly. 
 

Swore I posted this several months back. 

Meanwhile, Mislintat has helped make sure that Stuttgart are absolutely flying in their first season back in the Bundesliga.

[Dr. Gonzo]

lol Arteta making up statistics now - what the fuck is he talking about?

[Cicero]

If a team is struggling, look at the underlying metrics. 
 

If the metrics are shit, it’s down to the manager. 

[LFCMadLad]

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

lol Arteta making up statistics now - what the fuck is he talking about?

He is one of those new college managers that analyse everything through stats, same as the dickheads who have come up with VAR, to scrutinise everything.

In actual fact he needs to look at managers that don't do that. Klopp for instance is a manager that gets advice from the statistics etc but overall is a man that bonds the team, the club and its fans. He treats the players likes friends and not robots and therefore gets the absolute best out of them. 

In a nutshell, Arteta is a robot. He even looks like a puppet from Thunderbirds. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

1 hour ago, LFCMadLad said:

He is one of those new college managers that analyse everything through stats, same as the dickheads who have come up with VAR, to scrutinise everything.

In actual fact he needs to look at managers that don't do that. Klopp for instance is a manager that gets advice from the statistics etc but overall is a man that bonds the team, the club and its fans. He treats the players likes friends and not robots and therefore gets the absolute best out of them. 

In a nutshell, Arteta is a robot. He even looks like a puppet from Thunderbirds. 

Using stats blindly without context is stupid, and it appears that's exactly what he's doing. It looks like he's looking at Everton's xG and Arsenal's xG and thinking "wow statistically we should have won that" but Everton have a low xG for a few reasons - the Arsenal own goal doesn't give anything for xG. DCL's header, by virtue of being a header, gives low xG (you get a low xG stat for all headers unless they're right on the goal line). Meanwhile Arsenal got a penalty, which counts as 1 xG.

It demonstrates a fundamentally shit understanding of the statistic he's looking at. It's also very strange because you think if you're thinking really hard about the xG stat... you'd know how headers count towards that particular statistic. But he's also a manager that's said if you cross enough you'll get goals because "it is statistical probability" - so you'd think he'd be aware of how headers are viewed for expected goals? But also in that statement it doesn't seem to account for the quality of crosses or whether they're crossing into a box where there's a high probability of an Arsenal player getting on the end of it.

Statistics are important to any football manager. But you've got to at least understand the concepts behind what those statistics mean if you want to get useful information out of them. Looking at xG and just taking that as the statistical probability of whether you should have won the match is just... waaaaay too simplistic of a way to view a side's odds on whether they should have won. It's just a fundamentally flawed approach to viewing the statistic - there's flaws in what sorts of shots are considered "expected goals" imo (see the DCL header/how headers count towards xG).

The whole second half of that match demonstrates just why exactly xG isn't the best stat to judge whether a side should have won. Everton were 2-1 up against a side that struggles to threaten a defense - how much impetus does that give Everton to open up against a side that struggles to break down sides that haven't opened up? Not much, right? So the xG stat doesn't account for the momentum of the match at all.

A robot would read stats better. Arteta's more like Eric Cartman in his Awesome-O 3000 suit, hoping he can convince enough people he is what he isn't. But instead of trying to convince us he's a robot, he's trying to convince us he's a football manager that belongs at a club like Arsenal. Ironically, what he's done here is make it abundantly clear he's a fraud.