Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[Mel81x+]

1 minute ago, nudge said:

Mixed results coming in from trials. 

The latest report on clinical trial in China also says it's ineffective: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext

Meanwhile, the US National Institutes of Health released preliminary data on their trial results saying it's effective: https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/nih-clinical-trial-shows-remdesivir-accelerates-recovery-advanced-covid-19

So odd right? I'd try and push it down to core genetic-makeups of the test subjects and the strains used in each case. The China labs might be using something with a far more advanced structure than the ones in America. But, I still find it odd that labs are finding different results and I'd have expected it to be the other way around honestly.

[nudge]

13 minutes ago, Mel81x said:

So odd right? I'd try and push it down to core genetic-makeups of the test subjects and the strains used in each case. The China labs might be using something with a far more advanced structure than the ones in America. But, I still find it odd that labs are finding different results and I'd have expected it to be the other way around honestly.

After reading both reports, it seems the difference might be due to the methodology. Will wait for the full report on that American trial, but it seems that the control group in the Chinese study was allowed to get other treatments (namely lopinavir–ritonavir, interferons, and corticosteroids) - if the control group in the American study was not given any other meds, then that could be the reason for different findings and would potentially suggest that Remdisivir does work, but no significantly better than other (anti-viral) treatments.

[Honey Honey]

8 hours ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

It could be worse for us in Wales.

1. Test targets have been abandoned as 'we don't need to test that many a day' (despite promising the capacity of 5,000 tests a day by mid April) and the WHO constantly saying that we should test, test and test. England by comparison are trying to increase capacity as much as possible. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52356767

Our Health Minister Vaughan Gething then says yesterday that 'more tests are significantly needed', but no targets are set as 'it's not helpful'. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52463029

2. Two health boards in Wales (one of which has been under special measures since 2015) and haven't had many deaths each can't do basic maths, with the blame being caused as either 'a glitch in reporting' or using a different system altogether. One didn't provide figures for a whole month, while the other under reported until 24th April. This could start to make the death figures (and possibly others) unreliable. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52439435

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52458608

3. While we are fully aware of the lack of PPE available in the UK and we can all agree the UK Government should have taken action far earlier (I'll admit that I haven't watch the Panorama clip yet), Vaughan Gething said recently that we only had full PPE 'for a few days' last week. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52370677

We've now had new PPE equipment delivered at Cardiff Airport. However, this asks one question. Considering that health and social care is devolved in Wales, why didn't our AM's order their own PPE supply, seeing as they've now done that? 

If questions are being asked of the UK Government, surely the same must be asked to the Welsh Government as well. 

4. On 6th April, Vaughan Gething had said that we had bought 1,035 ventilators as part of UK arrangements. However, we have since only distributed 171 ventilators and have 60 in reserve. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52457010

While Vaughan Gething has tried to provide reassurances that if we need the full amount, we'll get it, it's concerning that we only have about a fifth of the amount available so far, especially if a second wave hit. There's also no guarantee that we'll get all of them if required now. 

5. Today, our First Minster Mark Drakeford announced that while England will test all residents and staff at care homes, NHS Wales will only provide tests to residents and staff that show symptoms as testing everyone will have 'no value' and 'diverts capacity'. This is despite the WHO saying to 'test, test, test' and our capacity only being 2,100 a day at present. When BBC asked the Welsh Government if they could speak to either the chief medical officer or chief scientific advisor, it was declined. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52470272

This could cause more issues as if only those with symptoms are tested, many others could easily be infected by that point and most likely cause more unnecessary deaths. 

 

Instead, the Welsh Government appear to be more concerned about playing politics to gain political brownie points and 'getting one over the Tories in the UK Government', such as:

1. Our Education Minister Kirsty Williams announcing that schools will close in Wales by 'being the first' and 'leading the way', despite the UK Government due to announce school closures regardless. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51947148

2. Mark Drakeford announcing a week extension to the previous three week lockdown on the 8th April, despite a COBRA meeting taking place the following day with the four nations to review the current lockdown measures. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52215421

Mark Drakeford then declares a week later that Wales will extend the lockdown for another three weeks. While all four UK nations agreed the extension, Mark Drakeford claimed that Dominic Raab's announcement to extend the lockdown was 'UK Government ministers catching up with his idea from last week'. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52308604

This is despite the fact that the lockdown was always going to be extended, but Mark Drakeford simy wanted to 'be the first' and show 'Wales leading the way' for something clear and obvious again. 

3. While England's lockdown measures do not have regulations in regards to restricting exercise to once a day, Mark Drakeford has set the restriction and the police have the powers to issue fines for those who exercise more than once. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52056337

This simply can't be enforced as you can't prove that someone has actually done exercise more than once a day. This goes back to the 'getting one over the UK Government' point by adding this restriction, but without actually thinking about it. 

4. Mark Drakeford has told employers to take all reasonable measures to ensure that staff are kept two metres apart at work or face possible fines which the police and council have the powers to do. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52184794

While I understand the reasoning behind it, it has simply been rushed through and was pointed out by CBI Wales that it was to be implemented over a single weekend and without clear guidance until the last minute. 

This has even been criticised by the police, with all four Welsh chief constables objecting to it. While the Welsh Government has insisted that it's a last resort, 'the public would rather police enforce essential legislation rather than being factory inspectors'. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52213177

5. Mark Drakeford has apparently been 'struggling' to engage with UK ministers in regards to a lockdown exit, yet apparently published a framework that the Conservative Welsh Secretary was unaware of, while the Wales Office Minister David TC Davies has said that while attending meetings with Michael Gove, there's always a Welsh Government representative at the meeting. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52470579

 

It says a lot when a Nobel Prize-winning scientist has not only criticised the UK Government, but the Welsh Government as well, saying that 'while they are buying PPE from abroad, they have not used our own resources' and that no reply was received following a Cardiff University letter offering support, which they haven't fully denied and just distanced themselves from his remarks. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52371941

 

Two more final points to make as well which kind of sums us up as a whole in Wales

1. During a virtual National Assembly meeting today and the lockdown restrictions being in place since March, the National Assembly had to approve it to keep it in force. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-52478690

It was voted overwhelmingly to endorse the lockdown. If someone could answer the point of the vote, please let me know. 

2. As part of an advisory to assist with Wales's recovery from the coronavirus crisis, they have appointed Gordon Brown (yes, that Gordon Brown) to advise on how Wales can operate in areas such as the NHS and transport after the lockdown is lifted. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52468157

While it's noteworthy that he's doing it for free, I'm not hiding my breath over this. 

His first session is around the economy post coronavirus crisis. Good luck to Gordon Brown as the Welsh Government know what they're doing. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-48757245

 

Don't be mistaken. This is not intended to be a defence of the UK government at all and fully accept they should have been quicker to react and should have also been more prepared.

However, what I'm trying to show here is that while the UK Government gets ripped to shreds over anything and criticised by devolved nations, the Welsh Labour Government (I had to highlight that bit) have done things just as bad (if not worse) while trying to play politics and take cheap shots instead of focusing at the task at hand (for example, when PPE was being provided to care homes staff in both England and Wales, Mark Drakeford mentioned that 'unlike in England, PPE is provided free in Wales'). If it was a Conservative run government, they would have been slaughtered like we're seeing now. 

Due to the lack of testing and basically not bothering to try and increase it substantially, claiming that there's 'no value' to test all care home residents and staff, the lack of PPE in general in line with the UK Government and that theWelsh Government appears more interested in making themselves look good (as well as Wales having more of an elderly population with more sickness levels and higher rates of poverty), I honestly think a stronger second wave could cripple us. 

And with that, I'm done. I'm not typing this up on a mobile again. 

There's a probable earthquake coming in next year's assembly elections. 

Polling at the start of this month has the Conservatives projected to win the most seats. Though not a majority.

[Bluebird Hewitt]

34 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

There's a probable earthquake coming in next year's assembly elections. 

Polling at the start of this month has the Conservatives projected to win the most seats. Though not a majority.

It won't happen. Swansea, Cardiff, Newport and the surrounding valley areas are Labour strongholds. That alone practically gives them the win. 

[Mel81x+]

10 hours ago, nudge said:

After reading both reports, it seems the difference might be due to the methodology. Will wait for the full report on that American trial, but it seems that the control group in the Chinese study was allowed to get other treatments (namely lopinavir–ritonavir, interferons, and corticosteroids) - if the control group in the American study was not given any other meds, then that could be the reason for different findings and would potentially suggest that Remdisivir does work, but no significantly better than other (anti-viral) treatments.

You're right. I did a cursory glance and read through it yesterday (the Chinese one) but I have no idea why they added the other drugs to the list? I am thinking they wanted the subjects boosted and for enzyme creation to stop but that makes no sense as if they were testing remdisivir then wouldn't they want that to be the only constant in the equation?

[Bluewolf]

12 hours ago, nudge said:

UK is not the only country with this issue... The same happened in Italy where people were dying at home or in care facilities and weren't included in the official death count. Spain doesn't include unconfirmed deaths in care facilities, and France similarly was recording fatalities in hospitals only. Wuhan also raised its death toll by 50% (additional 1290 cases) recently pretty much for the same reason - deaths outside hospitals have not previously been recorded. I'd say it's not intentional but rather the issue of collecting accurate data being quite challenging, and I'm sure there will be a lot of revisions done to the data retrospectively.

It may well not be but we are now ranked the third worst for deaths in the world behind Italy and the US so unless those other countries are still to divulge those figures we are not looking good either way

11 hours ago, Harvsky said:

I actually saw an article this morning criticising the lazy thinking in articles like that. Unfortunately I've searched but can't find it. I think it might have been in the Financial Times.

I appreciate that there are a fair few journalists and papers as well as the opposition obviously that are more than happy to be bashing away at the Government at any given opportunity for every little thing but the truth is they have dropped the ball on this one collectively and are rightly in most quarters ( but not all ) being called out on it... 

[Harry]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/antibody-tests-support-whats-been-obvious-covid-19-is-much-more-lethal-than-flu/2020/04/28/2fc215d8-87f7-11ea-ac8a-fe9b8088e101_story.html

A random sample of 3000 people across New York state suggests around 25% of the 8.8M New York City have been exposed to COVID. That's approx ten times the number of confirmed cases, which means it spreads faster than we thought, but is significantly less lethal than the confirmed cases and deaths would suggest, by about an order of magnitude.

[Honey Honey]

7 hours ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

It won't happen. Swansea, Cardiff, Newport and the surrounding valley areas are Labour strongholds. That alone practically gives them the win. 

They might have to join forces with Plaid.

[Bluebird Hewitt]

3 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

They might have to join forces with Plaid.

Plaid will join Labour as both are similar in terms of their position. They did it in the last AM elections and I'm sure they'll do the same again if the opportunity arise. 

[Dr. Gonzo]

6 hours ago, Bluewolf said:

It may well not be but we are now ranked the third worst for deaths in the world behind Italy and the US so unless those other countries are still to divulge those figures we are not looking good either way

I appreciate that there are a fair few journalists and papers as well as the opposition obviously that are more than happy to be bashing away at the Government at any given opportunity for every little thing but the truth is they have dropped the ball on this one collectively and are rightly in most quarters ( but not all ) being called out on it... 

Well there’s numerous reports today criticising several states, including Florida, for deflating the number of recorded cases and their deaths rate.

I’m not sure that means things are any better in the UK, but I think the situation in the US is just going to keep getting worse before it gets better. The toll on the economy in the US has been absolutely brutal. 36 million unemployed in 6 weeks.

[Cicero]

Daycares and childcare services opening back up in my area starting May 11th 

[Mpache]

I've been avoiding this thread, but Nunavut has its first case. This is extremely peculiar. They shut their borders weeks ago, and they just got their first case today. Can someone go that long being asymptomatic or is it via delivered goods? Very strange.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6887039/nunavut-reports-1st-case-covid-19/

[IgnisExcubitor]

We are expected to reduce restrictions post 4th May depending on the situation in the specific areas. 

Will most probably see villages opening up first. Can't see restrictions being lifted from most cities. Mine is the worst.

[Stan]

UK exit strategy to be announced some time next week... 

[MUFC]

36 minutes ago, Stan said:

UK exit strategy to be announced some time next week... 

I hope it's gradual. Open a shopping mall and it'll be heaving with teenagers. 

[RandoEFC+]

I hope the government hit this 100k target. If they miss it, the only thing worse than the anti-Tory extremists screeching ThE gOvErNmEnT lIeD aGaIn SaCk HaNcOcK will be the pro-Tory extremists pouncing on any mention of the target for the rest of time as part of balanced analysis or factual reporting screeching LeFtIe SnOwFlAkE iTs YoUr FaUlt FoR bEiNg So NeGaTiVe AlL tHe TiMe YoU hAtE bRiTaIn SuPpOrT tHe GoVeRnMeNt when no actual criticism was intended.

Also, people have talked about Hancock's job being at risk if he misses this target which is absolutely ridiculous and he's one of the last ones who's head should roll over the handling of this crisis.

[MUFC]

Excess of 9000 fines have been dished out due to lock down rules been broken.

Ready for the best bit? Nearly 400 are repeat offenders.

[Honey Honey]

US intelligence agencies release that they are confident that the virus was not man made after reviewing the evidence. Then hours later Trump says he is confident the virus is man made in Wuhan after he saw the evidence.

 

[Stan]

46 minutes ago, Harvsky said:

US intelligence agencies release that they are confident that the virus was not man made after reviewing the evidence. Then hours later Trump says he is confident the virus is man made in Wuhan after he saw the evidence.

 

I am not shocked or surprised.

I've got a feeling that in any pre-press conference briefing Trump is playing on his phone or just not giving a shit.

Then he gets given a piece of paper with some brief yet understandable notes to put on his lectern for the conference, and then he just does not comprehend anything. Hence all the confusions, contradictions and chaotic statements he gives. 

[Harry]

15 hours ago, Inti Brian said:

I've been avoiding this thread, but Nunavut has its first case. This is extremely peculiar. They shut their borders weeks ago, and they just got their first case today. Can someone go that long being asymptomatic or is it via delivered goods? Very strange.

https://globalnews.ca/news/6887039/nunavut-reports-1st-case-covid-19/

My guess would be that you have a small relatively well contained outbreak, which was undetected before now. I'd guess it mainly due to lack of known Covid in the area was just dismissed as being the flu for some time before people gave in and tested, or until someone became more seriously unwell which basically demanded a test. If containment measures have already been implemented it will likely not be widespread.

[Bluebird Hewitt]

12 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

I hope the government hit this 100k target. If they miss it, the only thing worse than the anti-Tory extremists screeching ThE gOvErNmEnT lIeD aGaIn SaCk HaNcOcK will be the pro-Tory extremists pouncing on any mention of the target for the rest of time as part of balanced analysis or factual reporting screeching LeFtIe SnOwFlAkE iTs YoUr FaUlt FoR bEiNg So NeGaTiVe AlL tHe TiMe YoU hAtE bRiTaIn SuPpOrT tHe GoVeRnMeNt when no actual criticism was intended.

Also, people have talked about Hancock's job being at risk if he misses this target which is absolutely ridiculous and he's one of the last ones who's head should roll over the handling of this crisis.

You know they will. The irony is that, as I mentioned previously, the Welsh Government has basically abandoned targets after failing to hit the 5k target and while the opposition (mainly Plaid and the Tories) have criticised it, no one else has. 

It's this sort of thing that just grates on me really. 

[Stan]

Here's that creative accounting taking place again? 

 

[Mpache]

7 hours ago, Harry said:

My guess would be that you have a small relatively well contained outbreak, which was undetected before now. I'd guess it mainly due to lack of known Covid in the area was just dismissed as being the flu for some time before people gave in and tested, or until someone became more seriously unwell which basically demanded a test. If containment measures have already been implemented it will likely not be widespread.

That's a possibility, another one is that it's arrived via pilots delivering goods. Keep in mind this is one of the most isolated areas in the world. No roads to Nunavut and water is frozen this time a year (or at least will be unfrozen soon).

[Stan]

123k tests according to government figures but only 73k people tested. 

Government playing with figures just to make them sound like they reached the target

Sending tests out to people apparently counts towards the 123k

 

[Bluebird Hewitt]

35 minutes ago, Stan said:

Here's that creative accounting taking place again? 

 

Sneaky but at least they had a target. Our Labour run government just abandoned any testing targets altogether.