Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak

[LFCMike]

 

[nudge]

A new and probably the most comprehensive meta review of scientific literature in pre-print as well as already peer-reviewed articles out there. The paper focuses on the innate and adaptive immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 and related coronaviruses, clinical studies and prognostic laboratory correlates, current therapeutic strategies, prospective clinical trials, and vaccine approaches. A long and very informative read on the current state of knowledge.

Full text pdf here: https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1074-7613(20)30183-7

[Harry]

11 hours ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

I really don't understand why we haven't made these within the UK itself by both UK and devolved governments, especially as they have to meet certain standards as well. 

I think this pandemic will profoundly impact many countries perspective on complete unadulterated globalisation. No longer will it be embraced without more significant consideration of the future impacts of that loss of national capability.

 

[RandoEFC+]

36 minutes ago, Harry said:

I think this pandemic will profoundly impact many countries perspective on complete unadulterated globalisation. No longer will it be embraced without more significant consideration of the future impacts of that loss of national capability.

 

I think there will be an impact on how other countries deal with China and their communist party, which will be significant, but not so much globalisation on the whole. If anything there are many factors about this crisis that highlight how important international relations and cooperation are.

[...Dan]

Wow.

[LFCMike]

24 minutes ago, ...Dan said:

Wow.

FFS 

[Azeem]

Two world cups and a war !

[Rucksackfranzose]

1 hour ago, ...Dan said:

Wow.

Sometimes I love the British media.

[Harry]

15 hours ago, RandoEFC said:

I think there will be an impact on how other countries deal with China and their communist party, which will be significant, but not so much globalisation on the whole. If anything there are many factors about this crisis that highlight how important international relations and cooperation are.

I'm not suggesting they will abandon globalisation, although that's definitely a risk with more right wing authoritarian types, and finger pointing.

But the idea of offshoring industries to low cost centres as a necessary and unavoidable outcome of capitalism in a globalised world... I think it will be challenged in light of a different perspective about capabilities that can be critical to national security in times of crisis.

[Honey Honey]

 

10 hours ago, ...Dan said:

Wow.

 

Whilst the clickbait quick opinions are laughter and head in hands because they've immediately assumed it is Daily Mail making shit up, the article itself is actually about academic research at the University of Reading. It is the academic trained in health discourse who makes the assumption that German media discourse is not in the same vein as the UK because of words coined during the Nazi period being a no go. As well as citing work by a German academic to support that claim.

Still, 19 likes for Reading University and the academic work versus 19000 likes for laughing at the Daily Mail.

I feel quite bad for the academic that her work is being taken to be laughed at.

[Harry]

The somewhat controversial views of a Nobel prize winning scientist from Stanford University....

according to Levitt, coronavirus data show that sweeping lockdown measures were an overreaction that may actually backfire.

Levitt has been analyzing the COVID-19 outbreak from a statistical perspective since January and has been remarkably accurate in his predications. The data show that the outbreak never actually grew exponentially, suggesting harsh lockdown measures, which have drastically impacted the world economy, were probably unnecessary.

Instead of strict lockdown orders, Levitt told UnHerd that developing "herd immunity" is a better strategy to fighting a virus like COVID-19.

"I think the policy of herd immunity is the right policy. I think Britain was on exactly the right track before they were fed wrong numbers. And they made a huge mistake. I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden. They didn't practise too much lockdown and they got enough people sick to get some herd immunity," Levitt explained.

I see the standout losers as countries like Austria, Australia and Israel that had very strict lockdown but didn't have many cases," he said. "They have damaged their economies, caused massive social damage, damaged the educational year of their children, but not obtained any herd immunity.

"There is no doubt in my mind, that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor," Levitt predicted.

I think this is another foul-up on the part of the baby boomers," the 72-year-old tells UnHerd's Freddie Sayers, not of the catastrophe in Britain that's so far killed more than 30,000 people, but the abandonment of the herd immunity strategy that would see even more baby boomers killed

We've caused pollution. We allowed the world population to increase three-fold in my lifetime, even more, we caused the problems of global warming, and now we've left your generation with a real mess in order to save a relatively small number of very old people.

"This is a virus designed to get rid of the baby boomers. Quite frankly, I've had a great life … I'd much rather help young people than live for a very long time."

[RandoEFC+]

It's not much of a hot take though is it? I'm sure the academic study is fascinating but I don't need to read it to tell you that Germany aren't going to reference a war that they lost as inspiration for overcoming adversity.

Maybe we should club together and write an academic paper studying how much AC Milan fans, coaches and players talk about channelling the spirit of that night in Istanbul as a source of inspiration compared to their Liverpool counterparts. I have an idea of what the results might look like but no spoilers! 

You can trust the Mail to pervert almost anything to make themselves look stupid though. Last night they tried the first hatchet job that I've seen against Keir Starmer when a cameraman was sent to film him and his wife clapping for the NHS. As the bloke doesn't want his kids to be exposed to the media limelight in any way because of his prominence as a public figure, he sent his daughter across the road to clap out of shot. When it was done, he asked the cameraman "do you have everything you need" so that he could go and get his daughter from across the road. You won't believe what happened next! (Is that a good click bait?)

Why am I bothering with this in addition to the article above? Well we have many members from outside the UK who look at us and question the madness of the last five years, up to and including our response to this pandemic, and the stupidity of so many of our public. Well the fact that the Daily Mail and its sister paper the Mail on Sunday are both among the top 5 circulating papers over here might go some way to explaining it.

[Stan]

Glad you mentioned this as I've seen that first initial tweet (from a person with only 40-odd followers) spread like wildfire. Dare I say there's some bot activity... 

Anyway, props to the cameraman for the truth of the story too. Without that, who knows how much further the original tweet would have spread. At least you see the actual reasoning behind Starmer asking the cameraman. The power of social media and Twitter though showing up. 

I feel for Starmer. I know politicians will get the light shone on them furiously and so brightly pretty much every second of their lives but people trying to dig out Starmer here must be so, so desperate. They're probably tearing their hair out that Labour have someone competent now to challenge government. His performances in PMQs so far have been top quality. Calm, collected and factual. 

[RandoEFC+]

17 minutes ago, Harry said:

The somewhat controversial views of a Nobel prize winning scientist from Stanford University....

according to Levitt, coronavirus data show that sweeping lockdown measures were an overreaction that may actually backfire.

Levitt has been analyzing the COVID-19 outbreak from a statistical perspective since January and has been remarkably accurate in his predications. The data show that the outbreak never actually grew exponentially, suggesting harsh lockdown measures, which have drastically impacted the world economy, were probably unnecessary.

Instead of strict lockdown orders, Levitt told UnHerd that developing "herd immunity" is a better strategy to fighting a virus like COVID-19.

"I think the policy of herd immunity is the right policy. I think Britain was on exactly the right track before they were fed wrong numbers. And they made a huge mistake. I see the standout winners as Germany and Sweden. They didn't practise too much lockdown and they got enough people sick to get some herd immunity," Levitt explained.

I see the standout losers as countries like Austria, Australia and Israel that had very strict lockdown but didn't have many cases," he said. "They have damaged their economies, caused massive social damage, damaged the educational year of their children, but not obtained any herd immunity.

"There is no doubt in my mind, that when we come to look back on this, the damage done by lockdown will exceed any saving of lives by a huge factor," Levitt predicted.

I think this is another foul-up on the part of the baby boomers," the 72-year-old tells UnHerd's Freddie Sayers, not of the catastrophe in Britain that's so far killed more than 30,000 people, but the abandonment of the herd immunity strategy that would see even more baby boomers killed

We've caused pollution. We allowed the world population to increase three-fold in my lifetime, even more, we caused the problems of global warming, and now we've left your generation with a real mess in order to save a relatively small number of very old people.

"This is a virus designed to get rid of the baby boomers. Quite frankly, I've had a great life … I'd much rather help young people than live for a very long time."

Very interesting until he leans heavily on the assumption that it's in any way viable for any developed country to just leave the over 70s to die and treat the rest of us so as not to overwhelm the hospitals. Another extremely shit hot take.

It's taken months and only recently been (more or less) confirmed that people aren't catching this twice and therefore herd immunity is going to be a tool used to get countries reopening but there was no evidence of that when the outbreak was forcing countries into lockdown so pursuing it would have been a reckless strategy.

You still have to control how many people get infected at once so as not to overwhelm hospitals. Until theres a vaccine it's clearly a case of striking a balance now between allowing people to get infected and gain immunity without too many people having it at once.

This guy is basically a lunatic. Just because he's apparently happy to die as punishment for being part of the baby boomer generation doesn't mean the rest of his age group are or that the rest of us are ready to write off our grandparents, parents, etc so that we can get back outside again.

[Harry]

19 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

Very interesting until he leans heavily on the assumption that it's in any way viable for any developed country to just leave the over 70s to die and treat the rest of us so as not to overwhelm the hospitals. Another extremely shit hot take.

It's taken months and only recently been (more or less) confirmed that people aren't catching this twice and therefore herd immunity is going to be a tool used to get countries reopening but there was no evidence of that when the outbreak was forcing countries into lockdown so pursuing it would have been a reckless strategy.

You still have to control how many people get infected at once so as not to overwhelm hospitals. Until theres a vaccine it's clearly a case of striking a balance now between allowing people to get infected and gain immunity without too many people having it at once.

This guy is basically a lunatic. Just because he's apparently happy to die as punishment for being part of the baby boomer generation doesn't mean the rest of his age group are or that the rest of us are ready to write off our grandparents, parents, etc so that we can get back outside again.

Is it though?

If we could help old people live an additional ten years on average but it would need to be invested in instantaneously, to such high cost and so suddenly that it would cause the entire world economy to go bankrupt and likely lead to two decades of economic misery for the Greta thunberg generation, you're suggesting the world leaders would decide that was a price worth paying?

[RandoEFC+]

9 minutes ago, Harry said:

Is it though?

If we could help old people live an additional ten years on average but it would need to be invested in instantaneously and so suddenly it would cause the entire world economy to go bankrupt you're suggesting the world leaders would decide that was a risk worth taking?

The entire world economy to go bankrupt? We're not even close to a discussion on that. I can't even call that an exaggeration because we aren't even near being on that sort of scale. Having face to face retail, sport and hospitality and a few other important but ultimately non-essential sectors have been shut down for a few months. None of those things are killing people at the moment.

When food production, freight, water and electrical supplies are shut down that's when more people will actually start dying from economic shutdown than the virus itself but nowhere in the world that I know of has a lockdown stringent enough to cause anything like that.

[Harry]

19 minutes ago, RandoEFC said:

The entire world economy to go bankrupt? We're not even close to a discussion on that. I can't even call that an exaggeration because we aren't even near being on that sort of scale. Having face to face retail, sport and hospitality and a few other important but ultimately non-essential sectors have been shut down for a few months. None of those things are killing people at the moment.

When food production, freight, water and electrical supplies are shut down that's when more people will actually start dying from economic shutdown than the virus itself but nowhere in the world that I know of has a lockdown stringent enough to cause anything like that.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/07/economy/uk-economy-bank-of-england/index.html

Current bank of England forecast that the UK is headed for it's worst economic crash in three centuries.

Not bankrupt, but more than 5p.

[Harry]

I don't agree with the guy at all he's obviously pretty nuts as his whole thing is predicated on needing to achieve herd immunity by mass infection which is obviously a pretty daft thing to do and tantamount to the best way of making the bottle of poison go away being to drinking it.

But I think there's an interesting analysis to be had coming out of this, when things return to a growth trajectory and the damage can be assessed and is each countries approaches be judged on a full reflection of human and economic (and subsequent human) consequences. 

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/07/economy/uk-economy-bank-of-england/index.html

Current bank of England forecast that the UK is headed for it's worst economic crash in three centuries.

Not bankrupt, but more than 5p.

Economic shocks are nothing new. This might be the worst one in our lifetimes but if the country hadn't locked down the fatalities could have been in the hundreds of thousands which impacts the economy in its own way. The majority of people won't see a life changing or even noticeable impact on their lives from even a major drop in GDP. Those that do should be supported by their governments. That's what governments are there for above all else, after all. Why do you pay your taxes your whole life if you don't expect the government to try to look after you when you get fucked over by something you couldn't do anything about?

It's not like this is or ever was a case of sacrificing the over 70s or we'll all face economic ruin. Economic shocks happen, countries have always recovered from them and they will this time as well. I absolutely sympathise with the thousands who will lose their jobs and businesses because of what's happened but it won't kill them. Mental health and loneliness is going to be a much bigger killer, at least in the short term, along with other not quite essential treatments falling by the wayside because of coronavirus taking over health services.

[Bluebird Hewitt]

Wales officially remains in lockdown for another three weeks, regardless of what is said on Sunday from the UK government. 

We can however exercise more than once a day now (because that was clearly enforceable), while garden centres, recycling centres and libraries can apply to reopen. 

So that'll be nine to ten weeks in lockdown by the time that finishes. Will be interesting to see what is mentioned on Sunday. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by Bluebird Hewitt

[Stan]

7 minutes ago, Bluebird Hewitt said:

Wales officially remains in lockdown for another three weeks, regardless of what is said on Sunday from the UK government. 

We can however exercise more than once a day now (because that was clearly enforceable), while garden centres, recycling centres and libraries can apply to reopen. 

So that'll be nine weeks in lockdown by the time that finishes. Will be interesting to see what is mentioned on Sunday. 

Seen Scotland did similar with their lockdown. Enforced it for next 3 weeks as well but they can review it any time they want.

[Bluebird Hewitt]

Just now, Stan said:

Seen Scotland did similar with their lockdown. Enforced it for next 3 weeks as well but they can review it any time they want.

Think ours have to review it every three weeks. Unsure if they can review it as and when. 

I assume Drakeford had to announce this as the three week review was due but even so, it makes a bit of a mockery of the 'four nation approach' to ending the lockdown he mentioned earlier this week. 

[RandoEFC+]

And more:

 

[nudge]

Well worth a read.

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-lockdown-snitches-thrive-in-europe-reports-watchmen-spying-neighbors/

[Carnivore Chris]

8 minutes ago, nudge said:

Well worth a read.

https://www.politico.eu/article/coronavirus-lockdown-snitches-thrive-in-europe-reports-watchmen-spying-neighbors/

Sad bastards. These are the worst people through all this and they are embarrassing.

Busybodies.