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@nudge I've tagged you in this just because you've probably heard of it and can explain it a bit more. 

There a paradox called the monty hall paradox. It's really blown my mind. I kind of get it but am having a hard  job  expressing it if you get what I mean.  Especially at 3 o clock in the morning 

Apparently there was a show with a presenter called monty hall. There would be 3 doors and you would have to guess which door the prize was behind. You would say which door you thought it was. He would open one of the two doors you said you didn't think it was. If the prize wasn't behind that door you would get a chance to stay with your original door or switch to the other door. Now apparently you actually have more chance of winning if you switch. The odds of you getting it right were 1/3. The two doors that you didn't pick had a combined total of 2/3. So if you switch you have more chance because that door was part of the 2/3 odds. 

I found it easier to understand if it's done with 100 doors.

Say you pick one door out of 100 and you get to the final 2. The chances are much higher that your original pick was wrong and that it was one of the other 99 doors which the option you didn't pick is part of. 

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13 hours ago, Gunnersaurus said:

@nudge I've tagged you in this just because you've probably heard of it and can explain it a bit more. 

There a paradox called the monty hall paradox. It's really blown my mind. I kind of get it but am having a hard  job  expressing it if you get what I mean.  Especially at 3 o clock in the morning 

Apparently there was a show with a presenter called monty hall. There would be 3 doors and you would have to guess which door the prize was behind. You would say which door you thought it was. He would open one of the two doors you said you didn't think it was. If the prize wasn't behind that door you would get a chance to stay with your original door or switch to the other door. Now apparently you actually have more chance of winning if you switch. The odds of you getting it right were 1/3. The two doors that you didn't pick had a combined total of 2/3. So if you switch you have more chance because that door was part of the 2/3 odds. 

I found it easier to understand if it's done with 100 doors.

Say you pick one door out of 100 and you get to the final 2. The chances are much higher that your original pick was wrong and that it was one of the other 99 doors which the option you didn't pick is part of. 

Yeah we got introduced to it in the statistics intro class. It's an interesting one cause it feels really counterintuitive, but it's all about probabilities... and humans are notoriously bad at assessing probabilities. Like you said, it's much easier to understand if you think of the same problem but with a 100 doors instead of 3. 

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52 minutes ago, nudge said:

Yeah we got introduced to it in the statistics intro class. It's an interesting one cause it feels really counterintuitive, but it's all about probabilities... and humans are notoriously bad at assessing probabilities. Like you said, it's much easier to understand if you think of the same problem but with a 100 doors instead of 3. 

I find these things really interesting sometimes. Difficult to understand but interesting 

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15 hours ago, Gunnersaurus said:

a presenter called monty hall. There would be 3 doors and you would have to guess which door the prize was behind. You would say which door you thought it was. He would open one of the two doors you said you didn't think it was. If the prize wasn't behind that door you would get a chance to stay with your original door or switch to the other door. Now apparently you actually have more chance of winning if you switch.

My mate and me were talking about this on Thursday funny enough... 

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  • 3 weeks later...
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The wifes Birthday and our daughter is visiting with Kaiden and giving us the treat of a carry-out at the local chippie, I am having a fish supper with the norm chip shop chips, looking forward to this, my healthy docs diet is out of the window for today,

 

Watch this space :P 

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1 hour ago, CaaC (John) said:

The wifes Birthday and our daughter is visiting with Kaiden and giving us the treat of a carry-out at the local chippie, I am having a fish supper with the norm chip shop chips, looking forward to this, my healthy docs diet is out of the window for today,

 

Watch this space :P 

BBBUUUUURRRRP    :hh:

455290023_10161751113447855_140687870304

 

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...
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(Fishing & Angling thread locked)

Quote

People horrified by what lies beneath after man drops GoPro from 'world's most dangerous fishing bridge'

You wouldn't want to just jump in there yourself

image.thumb.png.fe8d59a801f7efe1cea1c5149856bd03.png

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water...

Actually, we really hope you never thought it was safe to go into this water because it was green as hell and full of creatures that might fancy taking a bite out of you.........

 

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