Gunnersaurus Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 @nudge I've tagged you in this just because you've probably heard of it and can explain it a bit more. There a paradox called the monty hall paradox. It's really blown my mind. I kind of get it but am having a hard job expressing it if you get what I mean. Especially at 3 o clock in the morning Apparently there was a show with a presenter called monty hall. There would be 3 doors and you would have to guess which door the prize was behind. You would say which door you thought it was. He would open one of the two doors you said you didn't think it was. If the prize wasn't behind that door you would get a chance to stay with your original door or switch to the other door. Now apparently you actually have more chance of winning if you switch. The odds of you getting it right were 1/3. The two doors that you didn't pick had a combined total of 2/3. So if you switch you have more chance because that door was part of the 2/3 odds. I found it easier to understand if it's done with 100 doors. Say you pick one door out of 100 and you get to the final 2. The chances are much higher that your original pick was wrong and that it was one of the other 99 doors which the option you didn't pick is part of. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber nudge+ Posted July 21 Subscriber Share Posted July 21 13 hours ago, Gunnersaurus said: @nudge I've tagged you in this just because you've probably heard of it and can explain it a bit more. There a paradox called the monty hall paradox. It's really blown my mind. I kind of get it but am having a hard job expressing it if you get what I mean. Especially at 3 o clock in the morning Apparently there was a show with a presenter called monty hall. There would be 3 doors and you would have to guess which door the prize was behind. You would say which door you thought it was. He would open one of the two doors you said you didn't think it was. If the prize wasn't behind that door you would get a chance to stay with your original door or switch to the other door. Now apparently you actually have more chance of winning if you switch. The odds of you getting it right were 1/3. The two doors that you didn't pick had a combined total of 2/3. So if you switch you have more chance because that door was part of the 2/3 odds. I found it easier to understand if it's done with 100 doors. Say you pick one door out of 100 and you get to the final 2. The chances are much higher that your original pick was wrong and that it was one of the other 99 doors which the option you didn't pick is part of. Yeah we got introduced to it in the statistics intro class. It's an interesting one cause it feels really counterintuitive, but it's all about probabilities... and humans are notoriously bad at assessing probabilities. Like you said, it's much easier to understand if you think of the same problem but with a 100 doors instead of 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gunnersaurus Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 52 minutes ago, nudge said: Yeah we got introduced to it in the statistics intro class. It's an interesting one cause it feels really counterintuitive, but it's all about probabilities... and humans are notoriously bad at assessing probabilities. Like you said, it's much easier to understand if you think of the same problem but with a 100 doors instead of 3. I find these things really interesting sometimes. Difficult to understand but interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluewolf Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 15 hours ago, Gunnersaurus said: a presenter called monty hall. There would be 3 doors and you would have to guess which door the prize was behind. You would say which door you thought it was. He would open one of the two doors you said you didn't think it was. If the prize wasn't behind that door you would get a chance to stay with your original door or switch to the other door. Now apparently you actually have more chance of winning if you switch. My mate and me were talking about this on Thursday funny enough... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gunnersaurus Posted July 21 Share Posted July 21 2 hours ago, Bluewolf said: My mate and me were talking about this on Thursday funny enough... I think it might have been Marilyn vos savant who first discovered it but not to sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator Tommy Posted July 25 Moderator Share Posted July 25 Happy Birthday @DeadLinesman Hope you have a good one! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ Posted July 25 Subscriber Share Posted July 25 Happy Birthday Phil, may all your Birthday prezzies come in 3s or 4s 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rucksackfranzose Posted July 25 Share Posted July 25 Late, yet not too late. Have a good one @DeadLinesman! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUFC Posted August 13 Share Posted August 13 When you read posts by fellow members on here. Do you imagine their voices while reading? Like they are actually saying what you're reading? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ Posted August 15 Subscriber Share Posted August 15 The wifes Birthday and our daughter is visiting with Kaiden and giving us the treat of a carry-out at the local chippie, I am having a fish supper with the norm chip shop chips, looking forward to this, my healthy docs diet is out of the window for today, Watch this space Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ Posted August 15 Subscriber Share Posted August 15 1 hour ago, CaaC (John) said: The wifes Birthday and our daughter is visiting with Kaiden and giving us the treat of a carry-out at the local chippie, I am having a fish supper with the norm chip shop chips, looking forward to this, my healthy docs diet is out of the window for today, Watch this space BBBUUUUURRRRP 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiley Culture Posted August 15 Share Posted August 15 Great story. Who plays you in the film? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azeem Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Is the quotes thread also archived ? Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied. – Otto von Bismarck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ Posted September 10 Subscriber Share Posted September 10 (Fishing & Angling thread locked) Quote People horrified by what lies beneath after man drops GoPro from 'world's most dangerous fishing bridge' You wouldn't want to just jump in there yourself Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water... Actually, we really hope you never thought it was safe to go into this water because it was green as hell and full of creatures that might fancy taking a bite out of you......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeadLinesman Posted October 26 Share Posted October 26 Morning lads and lasses. Apologies for the absence, life suddenly caught up with me this year. My Mrs nearly died in January and we’ve waited most of this year for a heart operation that didn’t solve the issue. Add to that 3 kids and major work responsibilities and something had to give. I’ll try and be a bit more active moving forward as things have calmed a little X 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subscriber CaaC (John)+ Posted October 26 Subscriber Share Posted October 26 I wondered where you were, I hope your loved one pulls through ok buddy and remember family issues are more important than chat forums of any kind, family ALWAYS comes first so no rush in coming in here frequently, you take care and watch over the ones you love than a bunch of nutters like us in here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUFC Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 On 26/10/2024 at 10:10, DeadLinesman said: Morning lads and lasses. Apologies for the absence, life suddenly caught up with me this year. My Mrs nearly died in January and we’ve waited most of this year for a heart operation that didn’t solve the issue. Add to that 3 kids and major work responsibilities and something had to give. I’ll try and be a bit more active moving forward as things have calmed a little X Hang in there buddy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan Posted October 27 Administrator Share Posted October 27 On 26/10/2024 at 10:10, DeadLinesman said: Morning lads and lasses. Apologies for the absence, life suddenly caught up with me this year. My Mrs nearly died in January and we’ve waited most of this year for a heart operation that didn’t solve the issue. Add to that 3 kids and major work responsibilities and something had to give. I’ll try and be a bit more active moving forward as things have calmed a little X So sorry to hear that. How are you holding up now? If you ever need to chat just say. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeadLinesman Posted October 29 Share Posted October 29 On 27/10/2024 at 14:32, Stan said: So sorry to hear that. How are you holding up now? If you ever need to chat just say. I’m ok mate, we’re getting there slowly but surely. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Batard Posted October 31 Administrator Share Posted October 31 Been meaning to drop in for a while. Hope everyone is ok - or ok as they can be with the things life has thrown at them. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gunnersaurus Posted October 31 Share Posted October 31 So I've got a bi-polar assessment coming up. I'm sure some of you have noticed my slightly erratic posting style over the years. It would mean a different medication which could be very helpful. It certainly would explain a lot 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Administrator Stan Posted November 1 Administrator Share Posted November 1 12 hours ago, Gunnersaurus said: So I've got a bi-polar assessment coming up. I'm sure some of you have noticed my slightly erratic posting style over the years. It would mean a different medication which could be very helpful. It certainly would explain a lot Good luck. What does the assessment include? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator Tommy Posted November 10 Moderator Share Posted November 10 More activity on Discord than here nowadays. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whiskey Posted November 10 Share Posted November 10 6 hours ago, Tommy said: More activity on Discord than here nowadays. More like Discool ammirite. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderator Tommy Posted November 10 Moderator Share Posted November 10 2 hours ago, Whiskey said: More like Discool ammirite. :fuckyes: Oh wait, we don't have cool reacts on here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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