UK Politics & Brexit Discussion

[JoshBRFC+]

Surely his position is now untenable? Another frustrating thing is he's giving all the chavs an excuse to say "told ya so" and spout their shite. 

I'd give it a month and he's replaced with Sunak.

[Inverted]

The key thing is that in my opinion makes all this nonsense meaningless is that Johnson is not being done-in by anything recent that either he or Labour have done.

He is being hit by revelations that many people have obviously been sitting on for months and months. What were they waiting for all this time, why didn’t this information arise at the time? Because those who control the channels of information still didn’t entirely trust the opposition.

The UK is an authoritarian oligarchy ruled by a media-political class that arranges the exact composition of every government, and which will only show any hostility to the Conservatives so long as it can make sure the opposition is sufficiently neutered. 

And this is enabled by a middle-aged, middle-class “progressive” demographic that, when push comes to shove, would rather have a Hungary or Poland situation if the alternative is even the most mildly redistributive social democracy. 

If destroying Johnson would lead to any substantive change, then it simply wouldn’t be allowed to happen - just as it has already not been allowed to happen for all these months. 

Edited January 24, 2022 by Inverted

[Waylander]

Can't see him resigning over a cov-id breaking party type issue, after all the Brexit attacks he weathered showed he had broad shoulders whereas Theresa May's voice broke in parliament.

To get him out you need 54 Tory MPs to give a no confidence vote to trigger a new party election.

There is certainly an establishment though remember they did not oust Blair despite those massive anti-war marches he won three elections.

Perhaps Blair made some concessions before becoming leader.

There is a theory that the Queen and Crown are different.

The Crown is meant to be a clique of families running across parties prominent in various industries that can influence though how is unclear.

There is also a belief in some quarters that many  Crown interests were against Brexit though now glad we have got out.

We had only used our veto once and that was under Cameron when Europe wanted to tax our financial transactions and lets remember, we gave up fishing, manufacturing, paid the 2nd highest membership fee and and with a massive trade imbalance to Europe and they were trying to reduce our advantage in financial transactions.

[RandoEFC+]

1 hour ago, Inverted said:

The key thing is that in my opinion makes all this nonsense meaningless is that Johnson is not being done-in by anything recent that either he or Labour have done.

He is being hit by revelations that many people have obviously been sitting on for months and months. What were they waiting for all this time, why didn’t this information arise at the time? Because those who control the channels of information still didn’t entirely trust the opposition.

The UK is an authoritarian oligarchy ruled by a media-political class that arranges the exact composition of every government, and which will only show any hostility to the Conservatives so long as it can make sure the opposition is sufficiently neutered. 

And this is enabled by a middle-aged, middle-class “progressive” demographic that, when push comes to shove, would rather have a Hungary or Poland situation if the alternative is even the most mildly redistributive social democracy. 

If destroying Johnson would lead to any substantive change, then it simply wouldn’t be allowed to happen - just as it has already not been allowed to happen for all these months. 

Agree with a lot of this. People need to look past Blair and Iraq when it comes to the last non-Tory government though. The difference in stuff like child poverty, food banks, NHS waiting times, school funding, access to higher education, were astronomically different and these are all things worth caring about, even if anything resembling a genuinely progressive economic model or a social democracy would have you labelled a heretic in the current political climate.

[Stan]

1 hour ago, Inverted said:

What were they waiting for all this time, why didn’t this information arise at the time? Because those who control the channels of information still didn’t entirely trust the opposition.

Ultimately, its a moot point in the grand scheme of things. Ultimately the fact Johnson was flagrantly and nonchalantly breaking the rules and denied doing so only a few weeks ago is the actual story. The timing of release of a story is only secondary. 

[Devil-Dick Willie]

The English political landscape seems kind of similar to Australia's. 

Here's our situation, see if it's ringing any bells. 

We have 2 major parties, a 'left' and 'right' (the left is really just centrist or mild social left, mild economic right. The right are just outright corporate sluts with no actual ethos or political direction) 

The 'left' Labor, implement policies that are historically proven to work, and do so in aims to improve the country for everyone. They are genuinely trying to strengthen the nation, as it's the only way they can win elections and get re elected. 

The 'right' Liberals/nationals coalition, are a bunch of whores, who implement policies that suit their corporate donors, fuck up any task given to them wildly, could genuinely be argued that they're acting so much in contrary to the need of the nation it amounts to treason at times, and use the Murdoch and local private media to smear any hint of weakness in Labor, and even outright just make things up, never needing to back it up. They consistently run through 1 term PMs because of gross incompetence and changing needs of uncle Rupert. They also love laughing at good labor policies and undermining them in the media, then implementing them 5-10 years later on because they were good ideas. 

[RandoEFC+]

2 minutes ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

The English political landscape seems kind of similar to Australia's. 

Here's our situation, see if it's ringing any bells. 

We have 2 major parties, a 'left' and 'right' (the left is really just centrist or mild social left, mild economic right. The right are just outright corporate sluts with no actual ethos or political direction) 

The 'left' Labor, implement policies that are historically proven to work, and do so in aims to improve the country for everyone. They are genuinely trying to strengthen the nation, as it's the only way they can win elections and get re elected. 

The 'right' Liberals/nationals coalition, are a bunch of whores, who implement policies that suit their corporate donors, fuck up any task given to them wildly, could genuinely be argued that they're acting so much in contrary to the need of the nation it amounts to treason at times, and use the Murdoch and local private media to smear any hint of weakness in Labor, and even outright just make things up, never needing to back it up. They consistently run through 1 term PMs because of gross incompetence and changing needs of uncle Rupert. They also love laughing at good labor policies and undermining them in the media, then implementing them 5-10 years later on because they were good ideas. 

Sounds almost identical except our right wing party is slightly less driven by corporate and money stuff and more by staying in power, because half of them are already millionaires who have inherited estate from Mummy and Daddy and never spent a day in the real world. The likes of Johnson and Rees-Mogg have spent their lives believing they have some sort of divine right to rule the country because of their background and private education, and the influence the Auld English class system still has at every level of our political system. We have our country run at the behest of cripplingly mediocre posh white men and their fetish for cosplaying as a long-past Victorian upper ruling class, along with those from more varied backgrounds who are willing to sell enough of their soul to prop them up in return for a slice of the pie.

Also the current specific iteration of our Conservatives haven't shied away from exploiting isolationist, nationalist sentiment in a rather Trumpian manner, driven by Farage and his Brexit project. Brexit is slipping out of the public conversation though and Johnson's popularity is in a tail spin. They've had 12(?) years in power under three different Prime Ministers though, each one even worse than their predecessor, so I'm more optimistic than I have been in a while that the electorate might actually grant us a reprieve from another Conservative government at least for just one term. A man can dream.

[MUFC]

Police to investigate number 10 lockdown parties.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60123850

[Stan]

2 hours ago, MUFC said:

Police to investigate number 10 lockdown parties.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60123850

but it happened in the past?! 

[Bluewolf]

I do find it a bit odd after they were seemingly not interested in investigating alleged incidents before now suddenly start investigating... This also means that Sue Gray's report can't be released until they have completed theirs... This just smacks of delaying tactics, it could be months before anything is released... 

[RandoEFC+]

My understanding is that what Sue Gray has found while she's "establishing the facts" has led her to refer the crimes to the police. Some good info on Twitter I was reading at lunch time. It means that her report won't drop this week and finish Johnson off but instead could result in criminal charges which takes longer but is even worse for them.

[Danny]

On 24/01/2022 at 06:43, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think Boris is just a symptom of the disease of American style political rhetoric flowing into the UK.

Now that we’ve had a PM like Johnson, the floodgates are opened and I think there’s no turning back. Like with the US and Trump’s political rise - the ultra-conservatives there (because I think most democrats are actually very conservative) have fully embraced Trumpism… I suspect Boris and Farage style politicians are here to stay with the Tories and we’ll probably see politicians like them for the rest of our lives.

I think it’s a byproduct of the media treating partisan politics like it’s the same as supporting a football side. Tribalism and divisive politics makes them money and people like Boris tap into that.

There’s a thought process that prior to Trump and Brexit that we essentially lived in a progressive neoliberal society. It would seem at odds with each other as neoliberal is £££ and progressive is not really capitalist. But essentially we’ve lived within a wildly capitalist society whilst also socially leaning towards progressive tendencies such as LGBTQ+ rights, trans rights, BLM. What has happened is that the neoliberal side has left behind a solid chunk of white working class voters by outsourcing manufacturing jobs, relying on migration to pay staff cheaper wages and then the progressive side is that the white working classes are more likely to grow up around outright racism, homophobia etc and so are shunned by politicians and society in general. They felt completely unrepresented and so became this silent majority that we’re completely ignored politically.

Then comes Donald Trump in the states, Nigel Farage over here and they force through two of the biggest election mandates in either countries political history. Well specifically more so in Britain, but Trump in himself is one of the most important Presidents of all time. What both Farage and Trump lack though is foresight, they were simply there to take advantage of unrest. Eventually in the States you had the insurrection and inability to accept democracy, and over here you have Brexit. There is nothing more really for people like that to gain in the UK, Brexit has happened, overt nationalism is here, and now pleasing those voters has become ten times as hard because you actually have to deliver specific, individual successes, not just a generic “Brexit means Brexit”.

I think we’re on the slide from people like Johnson and Farage. Farage’s career has been reduced to nothing other than a soundbite for anti-immigration rhetoric, but no actual giant mandate that can unite voters. Johnson is failing miserably and really the ball is now in Labour’s court to do what they wish because Dominic Cumming’s has absolutely demolished not just Johnson, but the party as a whole.

[Dr. Gonzo]

23 minutes ago, Danny said:

I think we’re on the slide from people like Johnson and Farage. Farage’s career has been reduced to nothing other than a soundbite for anti-immigration rhetoric, but no actual giant mandate that can unite voters. Johnson is failing miserably and really the ball is now in Labour’s court to do what they wish because Dominic Cumming’s has absolutely demolished not just Johnson, but the party as a whole.

I think you’ve got considerably more faith in the electorate than me, but I hope you’re right.

[RandoEFC+]

41 minutes ago, Danny said:

I think we’re on the slide from people like Johnson and Farage. Farage’s career has been reduced to nothing other than a soundbite for anti-immigration rhetoric, but no actual giant mandate that can unite voters. Johnson is failing miserably and really the ball is now in Labour’s court to do what they wish because Dominic Cumming’s has absolutely demolished not just Johnson, but the party as a whole.

Not quite brave enough to jump to this conclusion myself and put it in writing but I do tend to agree with it.

On Farage and Brexit, we've come a lot further down the road than we ever should have, but with our EU membership over and none of the challenges we faced as a country actually getting any easier, reality will ultimately succeed where the Remain/pro-EU campaigning failed in convincing the majority conclusively that leaving the EU and regressing to a more isolationist approach was just a bad idea. There will always be hardcore supporters who refuse to acknowledge reality but the majority of the population are actually sensible and willing to eventually, reluctantly change their mind about things. People have largely already moved on from Brexit and the consequences will only continue to be laid more bare. The whole Farage/Brexit axis is one that continues to devour its children. Farage is now irrelevant, Cummings has nothing left but a bitter vendetta against the Prime Minister, Johnson is being found out to not only have no substance to back up his bluster now that he's "got Brexit done", but also as just not a very good human being at all. Cameron and May were both brought down by Brexit not to mention the string of foreign secretaries, Brexit ministers and other members of the cabinet that have been and gone in the last 5-6 years. I heard a claim a few weeks back that the number of ministers that had been seen off for Brexit-related reasons was in the forties now, following Frost's resignation in December.

I'm not convinced yet that Labour are in control of the situation. I quite like Starmer but he's very cautious and if the Tories go into the next election with a new ace up their sleeve, I have my doubts that he can sell Labour's vision for the future of the country and himself as Prime Minister. It's too soon to call but all of the polling, both at surface-level and in the deeper detail, looks very bad for the Conservatives. Still, even if we get stuck with them for another term, I don't think we'll see another Tory government that's quite as horrific as this one, with Patel threatening the RNLI to stop them from saving migrants, the Policing Bill designed to crack down on protesters, and the existential threat to the BBC.

I know I shouldn't allow it of myself but I do have a stronger sense of cautious optimism about the way politics is moving in the UK than I have done for a while. We are a long, long way into the shit but it at least feels like the next couple of years will present an opportunity to at least start digging our way back out of some of it.

[Stan]

33 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

I think you’ve got considerably more faith in the electorate than me, but I hope you’re right.

I think I fall in the same category as @Danny, but some of the voting intention figures these day show the Tories are absolutely slaughtered through their own doing. Trust in government must have been a big thing because since all these breaches have been made public, those figures have plummeted. While that's only voting intention and not fully indicative of what may actually happen at an election, I have slightly more faith for the next one because of how much trust has been lost in the current government.

Also agree with @RondónEFC - while I like Starmer, I agree he's not got that big a pull to be the PM in a lot of people's eyes. But he's getting there. I think the big point to make is for a long time anyone defending Tories would state 'yeah but if it wasn't us, you'd have Starmer in charge'. Before that it was Corbyn. These days, though, Starmer actually represents a sensible alternative - he's not perfect by any means but he is starting to show that he can be a reasonable choice if the Tories weren't in power.

As they say though, it's the hope that kills you  

[RandoEFC+]

In the 74th change of the day, Sue Gray's report is now due to be published tonight and fully released to the public tomorrow morning. 

[Danny]

@Dr. Gonzo @RondónEFC I wouldn’t say I think we’re out of the woods yet, there’s probably still a lot of waves being made from what was a very big splash. But logically that makes sense to me and I’m not sure what else is left out there to unite people in that way. You could say covid but anti-vaxxers are a small minority, which is part of why the Tories power is falling off a cliff because they are disappointing most of their fanbase.

[DeadLinesman]

22 minutes ago, RondónEFC said:

In the 74th change of the day, Sue Gray's report is now due to be published tonight and fully released to the public tomorrow morning. 

REDACTED

[Bluewolf]

2 hours ago, RondónEFC said:

My understanding is that what Sue Gray has found while she's "establishing the facts" has led her to refer the crimes to the police. Some good info on Twitter I was reading at lunch time. It means that her report won't drop this week and finish Johnson off but instead could result in criminal charges which takes longer but is even worse for them.

They were saying this morning that as a result of the Met investigation it would delay her report but now reading it may even be out tonight and released before PMQ's tomorrow so you could be right... 

[RandoEFC+]

8 minutes ago, Bluewolf said:

They were saying this morning that as a result of the Met investigation it would delay her report but now reading it may even be out tonight and released before PMQ's tomorrow so you could be right... 

Apparently some desperate government members tried to make up an excuse - we can't publish the report now because it might influence the police investigation. Too bad for them, the Met came out and said they have no objection to it. Sue Gray's report establishes the facts of the matter, describes the parties, etc. It's down to the Met whether there are criminal charges and it's down to Tory MPs to decide whether or not he is removed as party leader and Prime Minister.

[Bluewolf]

2 minutes ago, RondónEFC said:

Apparently some desperate government members tried to make up an excuse - we can't publish the report now because it might influence the police investigation. Too bad for them, the Met came out and said they have no objection to it. Sue Gray's report establishes the facts of the matter, describes the parties, etc. It's down to the Met whether there are criminal charges and it's down to Tory MPs to decide whether or not he is removed as party leader and Prime Minister.

What are you betting on??  A get out jail free on technicalities or a good much deserved black eye for those involved?? 

[RandoEFC+]

2 minutes ago, Bluewolf said:

What are you betting on??  A get out jail free on technicalities or a good much deserved black eye for those involved?? 

I'm not putting any bets on. Johnson won't be Prime Minister when this is all over though, be that a week from now or six months.

[RandoEFC+]

 

 

[Bluewolf]

4 minutes ago, RondónEFC said:

I'm not putting any bets on. Johnson won't be Prime Minister when this is all over though, be that a week from now or six months.

I think once a slippery weasel always a slippery weasel... 

[Stan]