Russia and Ukraine

[Devil-Dick Willie]

I don't necessarily support or object to Putin's support of the formation of 2 sovereign republics, given that there is immense local support (Ukrainian) in those areas for it. And he has a very good point about Nato. 

What I do want to say, after years of seeing western 'leaders' who are a list of idiots, imbeciles and decrepit old men like Trump, BJ, May, Scomo and Biden, that's its outright bizarre to see a leader who speaks plainly and clearly, with confidence and authority. Not reading bullet points written by a staffer 3 hours before hand with spin and sleaze. It's mad what we've degraded to in comparison. 

[Inverted]

34 minutes ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

I don't necessarily support or object to Putin's support of the formation of 2 sovereign republics, given that there is immense local support (Ukrainian) in those areas for it. And he has a very good point about Nato. 

What I do want to say, after years of seeing western 'leaders' who are a list of idiots, imbeciles and decrepit old men like Trump, BJ, May, Scomo and Biden, that's its outright bizarre to see a leader who speaks plainly and clearly, with confidence and authority. Not reading bullet points written by a staffer 3 hours before hand with spin and sleaze. It's mad what we've degraded to in comparison. 

I agree, one of the advantages that Putin has is the tendency for liberal democracy to drive the standard of public discourse down almost indefinitely. It allows him to look like a geopolitical mastermind in comparison.

In the West, there is a kind of consensual amnesia where political advancement basically requires that nobody think too deeply about the past. Things are continually brushed under the carpet, re-written, or just forgotten, and showing any kind of ideological consistency is basically a political death-sentence.

Putin doesn't need to worry about swinging with the times. He can talk about his world view and historical grievances with absolute self-assurance, and he can show a 20+ year record of actions which are mostly consistent with what he says. Even if ultimately he is just cynically serving a small power base (and I think Putin is part cynical and part sincere about his nationalism) he has a public rationale which is broadly consistent with its own internal logic.

There is basically nobody in Western politics who could possibly match that, because systematically it just shouldn't be possible for such a person to rise to the top and stay there. 

 

Edited February 24, 2022 by Inverted

[Devil-Dick Willie]

3 minutes ago, Inverted said:

I agree, one of the advantages that Putin has is the tendency for liberal democracy to drive the standard of public discourse down almost indefinitely. It allows him to look like a geopolitical mastermind in comparison.

In the West, there is a kind of consensual amnesia where political advancement basically requires that nobody think too deeply about the past. Things are continually brushed under the carpet, re-written, or just forgotten, and showing any kind of ideological consistency is basically a political death-sentence.

Putin doesn't need to worry about swinging with the times. He can talk about his world view and historical grievances with absolute self-assurance, and he can show a 20+ year record of actions which are mostly consistent with what he says. 

There is basically nobody in Western politics who could possibly match that, because systematically it just shouldn't be possible for such a person to rise to the top and stay there. 

 

Just think about the backgrounds too. 

Bush was a daddys pet puppet of a former regime. 
Biden is a demented old man WAY past his prime
Trump was a shit businessman daddys boy. 
BJ was a journalist (scum) then a shit mayor. 
Scomo failed at every job he had, falling up a ladder to politics and eventually prime minister. 

 

Putin was an intelligence officer, then he was head of intelligence. He coerced the Russian oligarchy to support him as president, led the nation through several international embarrassments with determination, dodged the GFC in 2008, and has done wonders for the Russian economy. Yes, he's a conservative asshole. Yes, if hell exists he's written himself a ticket. But hes clearly a competent and capable leader, and was well before he ever led the nation. The same just can't be said of the wests leaders. 
 

[OrangeKhrush]

2 hours ago, Tommy said:

Wtf? 

So they have just discriminated against all Russians even those that may not support this at all.   Got to love liberal cognitive dissonance.  

[El Profesor]

The 90s look now a decade of lost opportunities. It was the one chance to make Russia a stable and prosper democracy. A shame. Instead of an Adenauer, what the russians got was financial crisis, humiliation and a drunken Yeltsin.

(Later, I´ll post a reading list, with the names of some books that can help us understand this crisis). 

 

[RandoEFC+]

6 minutes ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

Just think about the backgrounds too. 

Bush was a daddys pet puppet of a former regime. 
Biden is a demented old man WAY past his prime
Trump was a shit businessman daddys boy. 
BJ was a journalist (scum) then a shit mayor. 
Scomo failed at every job he had, falling up a ladder to politics and eventually prime minister. 

 

Putin was an intelligence officer, then he was head of intelligence. He coerced the Russian oligarchy to support him as president, led the nation through several international embarrassments with determination, dodged the GFC in 2008, and has done wonders for the Russian economy. Yes, he's a conservative asshole. Yes, if hell exists he's written himself a ticket. But hes clearly a competent and capable leader, and was well before he ever led the nation. The same just can't be said of the wests leaders. 
 

Western politics has become overweight and complacent after years of peace and comfortably being the largest power base in the world. UK and US politics are little more than a game to the most powerful because we've had a generation of privilege and comfort where we've never faced a true crisis. The UK even got so bored and decadent that we created our own crisis in Brexit. And it left us with Trump and Johnson in charge of the worst pandemic in a lifetime and now this. Biden I think is a better and more serious man but like you say, he's ancient and has little room for manoeuvre. Obama's mistakes overseas and Trump's administration driving US conversation towards an isolationist approach mean his hands are tied.

We all know about the direction of traffic away from the traditional Western superpowers as well. Another difference between Putin and our leaders isn't just his competence but his motivation. He has always wanted more, while the West look to delay the inevitable and try to appear to cling on to supremacy until the next election cycle. It has bred reactive leaders on our side while Putin has been putting things in place to achieve his goals for years.

Now we have a crisis in Europe while China sit back and observe just how impotent the US-European axis has become.

Some people have been warning about this for years as well. Highly qualified experts shouted down by right wing media moguls so that the public are left thinking politics doesn't really matter and I'll vote for Boris/Nigel because I'd go for a pint with them, or I'll vote for Trump because he says the intolerant things that "everyone's thinking". People who claim to be patriots and in touch with ordinary people, accelerating the painful decay of Western leadership from within.

My thoughts are with everyone in Ukraine. You almost hope for a swift seizure of control for the Russian army to minimise the bloodshed because that seems to be the only likely eventual outcome. I dread to think what comes next though.

14 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

So they have just discriminated against all Russians even those that may not support this at all.   Got to love liberal cognitive dissonance.  

Imagine using a post in this thread, of all threads, to try and score points for some anti-liberal agenda.

[Stan]

2 hours ago, Bluewolf said:

This whole thing is just insanity.... I feel for those innocent people getting caught up in all this.. 

This.

Putin's power trip is about to get into full flow, by the sounds of it.

Maybe it was my naivety or lack of knowledge or blind optimism on the whole thing, but I didn't think it would come to a world war, per se, and just remain Russia & Ukraine (not that that's a good thing anyway).

Sympathies lie with Ukrainians here - can't begin to imagine what it must feel like either as a citizen living there, or expat seeing what's going on back in their home country. 

[Waylander]

If he has pushed the 'nuclear' button and conducted an invasion where does he stop and does he stay?

The rhetoric of the Western Media about escalating actions while they are potentially initially being shelled or bombed was probably too much of a Red Flag. Also Ukraine is reasonably close to Russia's biggest oil fields.

So they have jumped the gun.

I don't want any war yet with our media keep threatening to support yet without any significant ground forces suggests it was just about rhetoric (except for those unfortunate citizens in the firing line who may now see their country occupied or divided).

I picked up somewhere else about recent Chinese conversations with South Korea as China does not want US military bases near China. South Korea mentioned the North Korean threat and China suggested they get nukes for security.

So they can't hide it now the Cold War mk II is seriously underway. 

We also have a mini oil crisis as without Russian fuel we have a supply shortage. 

 

 

 

[Azeem]

This seems pretty much like pre-WW2 scenario. A defeated power, humiliated and in crisis at its lowest and perhaps embarrassed too much by victorious powers. 

A competent but dangerous man rises to power entering a period of resurgence but then goes on an expansion agenda while former victorious states are too disunited within themselves, and lack credible leadership. 

[Bluewolf]

From what media has gathered this seems to be roughly reported areas of conflict... 

[nudge]

 

Fucking hell.

[RandoEFC+]

 

 

 

 

[Tommy]

 

[El Profesor]

As promissed, the reading list: 

 

Russian and Ukrainian History: 

 

- The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine - Serhii Plokhy

 

- Borderland: A Journey Through the History of Ukraine - Anna Reid

 

- Bloodlands: Europe Between Hitler and Stalin - Timothy Snyder 

 

- Red Famine: Stalin's War on Ukraine - Anne Applebaum

 

- Lost Kingdom: The Quest for Empire and the Making of the Russian Nation - Serhii Plokhy

 

- From Peoples Into Nations: A History of Eastern Europe - John Connelly 

 

- Natasha's Dance: A Cultural History of Russia - Orlando Figes

 

- The Last Empire: The Final Days of the Soviet Union - Serhii Plokhy

 

- Nuclear Folly: A History of the Cuban Missile Crisis - Serhii Plokhy

 

 

Present-Day Russia and Ukraine:

 

- Man Without A Face - The Unlikely Rise of Vladimir Putin - Masha Gessen 

 

- It Was a Long Time Ago, and it Never Happened Anyway – Russia and the Communist Past - David Satter 

 

- Putin's Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia? - Karen Dawisha

 

-Ukraine and Russia: From Civilied Divorce to Uncivil - Paul D´Anieri

 

- Godfather of the Kremlin: The Decline of Russia in the Age of Gangster Capitalism - Paul Klebnikov

 

- One Soldier's War In Chechnya - Arkady Babchenko

 

- Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell in and Out of Love with Vladimir Putin - Ben Judah

 

- Russia Without Putin: Money, Power and the Myths of the New Cold War: Power, Politics and the Making of Post-Soviet Society - Tony Wood

 

- Babylon - Victor Pelevin. * (The only fiction book on this list. This looks like a very interesting read of post-soviet Russia society). 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 









 

[Rick]

Putin proper needs given a good hiding doesn’t he. 

[Azeem]

Belarus joining Russian troops 

[Spike]

3 minutes ago, Rick said:

Putin proper needs given a good hiding doesn’t he. 

[Tommy]

3 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

Belarus joining Russian troops 

Not surprising considering Lukashenko is a huge piece of shit. 

[Machado]

They don't pay you enough pal...

 

[Azeem]

Some Turkish ships were reportedly damaged, blocking the Bosporus for Russia could happen if these incidents occur. Ukraine requested Turkey to do so but considering inaction of West no one would like to take Putin's action right now. 

[Machado]

Everyone to the west too slow to announce additional sanctions. Talks that they will be out within 24h but that's too much time for Ukraine is it not?

[Waylander]

Russia had sent several missile ships to the Black Sea, seem to have anticipated this and they also have that naval base in Syria.

Additionally they placed naval ships in the Atlantic close to the communication lines on the seaboard between US, UK and EU.

 

[Tommy]

 

 

[RandoEFC+]

39 minutes ago, Machado said:

Everyone to the west too slow to announce additional sanctions. Talks that they will be out within 24h but that's too much time for Ukraine is it not?

Should all have been agreed in advance ready to implement at the drop of a hat in case of this happening. Western intelligence has been saying for weeks this was on the cards. It's staggering that all this haggling that seems to be going on between European leaders at the moment wasn't resolved urgently.

[RandoEFC+]

Some European countries are still resisting some sanctions due to their impact on their own energy supply etc. Understandable but do they think it's going to be easier if they wait longer to pull the plug? Putin isn't going to respond to more warnings. He probably isn't going to respond to heavy sanctions either but if this is how he wants it to be, there's no point waiting longer to sever ties with him.