Russia and Ukraine

[Waylander]

War is coming, expect it to go to a nuclear stand off like '62 after it starts to escalate.

Some of the rhetoric is bizarre and have noticed this before when bad stuff happens.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, Stan said:

Is it?

In that sense, we can't ever complain about anything again?

I mean it's not surprising, but I do think it comes off as a bit insensitive... and it's not really a high priority, when you've got a nuclear power engaging in a war in Europe and acting increasingly desperate in the conflict as the invasion takes longer than anticipated. I'm more worried about it escalating into something bigger because we can't trust that Putin is an entirely rational actor right now than I'm worried about the inevitable rising cost of petrol.

I don't think Putin's got any great outcomes here, he can either:

• Continue the invasion as planned and then have the costly occupation with the insurgency to follow, with the West likely to continue supplying Ukraine's resistance toRussian invasion/occupation... all while Russia grows increasingly isolated and its economy crumbles. And then it becomes a race to see whether Russia's economy can last longer than Ukraine can hold out in an expensive war.
• Back-off and look weaker to his people, but I think it's likely we would still see Russia sanctioned heavily for however long he's in charge - it doesn't really solve his "Russia is now economically isolated" problem; there really isn't a solution to this problem for him while he's still in power
• Escalate further: we've already seen this with the war crimes & deliberate bombing of civilians, it's meant to turn Ukrainian on their leaders to end their suffering. This likely isn't going to work and make opposition to Russia further, so if he keeps escalating I think we're eventually at a point where WW3 could start at any moment

If Russia's economy keeps crumbling, he's the more money his oligarchs lose, and the more likely it is that someone in Putin's inner circle is more motivated to put a bullet in his head. Now I have no idea how likely that ultimately is, and I've heard Russian oligarchs have far less power over Russia's government than they did a decade ago. But I imagine the more he hurts Russia's elite, the more likely it is that the mafioso style of governance he's had over Russia can come back to bite him in the arse if he pisses off too many of his mafioso style buddies.

Putting someone in a corner can take rationality out of their decision making, and that's a massive worry imo. Yet at the same time, the world doesn't have any real meaningful response to Russia's aggression without putting him in a corner. So while petrol prices going up is annoying as fuck... I don't think it should be what is shocking loads of people about this conflict.

[Waylander]

We are told that Russia's economy is just the size of Italy and yet they have the biggest armed forces in Europe by some margin. So how do they keep it funded, there are obviously some things we do not see or recognise. I expect a lot of their economy is self sufficient or self contained and running without imports so think economic action by the West will be limited. Of course some oligarchs will see their fortunes shrink by a large margin.

[Dr. Gonzo]

17 minutes ago, Waylander said:

We are told that Russia's economy is just the size of Italy and yet they have the biggest armed forces in Europe by some margin. So how do they keep it funded, there are obviously some things we do not see or recognise. I expect a lot of their economy is self sufficient or self contained and running without imports so think economic action by the West will be limited. Of course some oligarchs will see their fortunes shrink by a large margin.

They keep it funded because they have very high military spending (4-5% of their GDP on military spending), despite not having a massive GDP and a really low GDP per capita. The wealth gap in Russia between ordinary people and the elite is absolutely massive, staggering to what you'd imagine in the West. Russia's also faced economic tightening as a result of the sanctions put on it after their 2014 invasion of Ukraine when they seized Crimea.

They can fund the military so well despite not having a massive GDP because they sit atop 30% of the world's natural resources: especially oil and natural gas. But funding the military well at the expense of things like infrastructure means - Russia's military spending is high, but it's at the expense of the overall Russian economy as a whole. Russia spend less than many countries do on their militaries... but spends a great deal of it's GDP on military spending.

To put it into context, the next closest spender to Russia is the UK. In 2020, we spent $59.2 billion USD in military spending, translating to roughly 2.2% of our GDP. Russia, on the other hand, spent $61.7 billion USD on it's military. On the face of it, that's not much more than we spent...

...but that's almost 4.4% of their total GDP spent on the military in 2020. And as we know, they've got a smaller GDP than most countries their size do.

These resources are also why Russia's presented such a problem for Europe to deal with. Europe, simply put, is reliant on natural gas exports - they keep houses warm in the winter. And their oil exports are of significance to the world - because when an oil exporter the size of Russia becomes cut off from most markets... well that raises the price of petrol for everyone. They can fund their military with these exports and it's also a form of political leverage with the rest of the continent - and it's really not until this invasion of Ukraine are we seeing Europe truly reevaluate the energy dependence it has on Russia.

Couple that with Russia's historical importance to foreign policy in the modern world - Russia has the USSR's old permanent seat on the UNSC, which means even if they are no longer an economic powerhouse they will always be important world players - which is true of the UK if we ever have a significant economic crumbling - as long as the UN remains a thing. And they've also got an absolutely massive nuclear arsenal. So they've got reason to want to spend heavily on their military, despite it putting pressure on the rest of their economy.

I am not so sure that their economy is self-sufficient enough for them to carry on the way they have without oil and natural gas exports, certainly not while waging an expensive war. It's one thing to spend so much when you've got so much oil and gas and have regular buyers for them. It's another thing to find yourself suddenly economically isolated when you've been relying on exports to fund your military for decades.

I feel for ordinary Russians who will be probably most negatively impacted by the sanctions and who have no desire for war. These are people who've seen their currency turn worthless overnight and are seeing much of the world slam its doors shut on doing business with them - I think it will be very difficult for them. I've seen how difficult it can be for people in a country that's been isolated from the global economy for decades... I imagine it will be more sudden and damaging for people who've experienced only "minimal" sanctions generally targeted at oligarchs to suddenly find their economy isolated. But short of starting WW3, I'm not sure there's any sufficient serious response to make Putin and the Russian elite sweat other than this sudden and swift economic backlash against Russia. It's a shame to see that it will negatively impact so many Russian people... but it's not quite as negatively impacting them as much as Russia's negatively impacting the lives of innocent Ukrainians.

[Devil-Dick Willie]

[RandoEFC+]

13 minutes ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

I mean it's probably accurate that most people on here, apart from @Bluewolf , and in fact most people that are currently alive, didn't bat an eyelid at the events of World War 2 on account of the fact that they weren't born. Just a thought.

[Viva la FCB+]

"Can I tow you back to Russia" 

[Azeem]

Ah man !

[6666]

1 hour ago, Aladdin said:

Ah man !

His brain went "Wait a minute, don't we have tanks encircling Iran?" and then he got confused.

[6666]

Gotta love Aba & Preach.

 

[CaaC (John)+]

13 minutes ago, 6666 said:

His brain went "Wait a minute, don't we have tanks encircling Iran?" and then he got confused.

To be honest, this is why Putin is confident in what he is doing in his evil ways, he knows America does not have another, Kennedy, Bush, Reagan or even Clinton as the President of the USA, forget about Trump, that guy would have been ringing up Putin telling him just be careful what you are doing and we can meet after and have a few pints together when this blows over.

[Tommy]

8 hours ago, RondónEFC said:

on account of the fact that they weren't born. Just a thought.

Yea, what a stupid meme. 

[Stan]

 

 

[Devil-Dick Willie]

2 hours ago, Tommy said:

Yea, what a stupid meme. 

Because past events never carry a long winded culture shock. It's just a big coincidence you country is full of neo nazis, and that east of the wall is basically a different world to the far west? 

But yes, I'd sooner see a meme that represents how many civilians were killed in Iraq and Afghanistan by smart bombs and US missile strikes. 

[Rick]

It’s almost as if a crazy dictator type leader has invaded a neighbour and is threatening the rest of Europe and the world with nuclear action if anybody gets involved. 
 

Yeah, why would any Europeans be concerns and have vested interest in that situation?? Weird. 

[Happy Blue]

 

[Devil-Dick Willie]

Just now, Rick said:

It’s almost as if a crazy dictator type leader has invaded a neighbour and is threatening the rest of Europe and the world with nuclear action if anybody gets involved. 
 

Yeah, why would any Europeans be concerns and have vested interest in that situation?? Weird. 

Why does my gripe that people don't give a fuck about the actions of 'their side' always get turned into "of course we're worried about the fate of Ukraine, it's our neighbor dickhead"? Of course fucking of course. Doesn't change a fucking thing. 

"Fuck yes we bombed 800 Russian vehicles and their drivers into hell!"

"Oh no, 5 people died in a Russian missile strike, EVIL EVIL RUSSIANS" 

Fun fact. A vast majority of those Russian men who just got fried didn't want to die for their country, didn't want to invade Ukraine, in person or otherwise, and had just as much agency over their own life and death as any of the poor fucking civilians who are dying right now. 
When 'your teams' soldiers die it's tragedy. When a police officer or a fire fighter dies it's a tragedy. When the enemy dies it's victory. 

it's fucking hypocrisy is what it is. 

[Azeem]

Hilary said they successfully defeated Russians in Afghanistan through a 'voluntary force' while suggesting the same for Ukraine.

- In Afghanistan the force was gathered by invoking pathos and emotional rhetoric of holy war! people came flocking in. How would you do that in Ukraine's case? Pan-Europeism ?

- Pakistan became a key neighbour to facilitate the cause bcz they genuinely felt Soviets will swallow them to. No neighbour of Ukraine wants to get in Putin's crosshairs cause the fear of further expansion isn't great enough to risk it

[Rick]

54 minutes ago, Devil-Dick Willie said:

Why does my gripe that people don't give a fuck about the actions of 'their side' always get turned into "of course we're worried about the fate of Ukraine, it's our neighbor dickhead"? Of course fucking of course. Doesn't change a fucking thing. 

"Fuck yes we bombed 800 Russian vehicles and their drivers into hell!"

"Oh no, 5 people died in a Russian missile strike, EVIL EVIL RUSSIANS" 

Fun fact. A vast majority of those Russian men who just got fried didn't want to die for their country, didn't want to invade Ukraine, in person or otherwise, and had just as much agency over their own life and death as any of the poor fucking civilians who are dying right now. 
When 'your teams' soldiers die it's tragedy. When a police officer or a fire fighter dies it's a tragedy. When the enemy dies it's victory. 

it's fucking hypocrisy is what it is. 

Who the fuck on here is celebrating anybody dying? Nobody here is “cheering on” Ukraine to kill every Russian soldier. We would all be more than happy for the fighting to stop completely. 
 

BUT, if you’re trying to tell me that there’s no difference in soldier getting killed in conflict and civilians being bombed in their homes then you are off your head. Most of these soldiers probably don’t agree with being there, and it’s very sad that they are losing their lives for something they don’t believe in, but they signed up to the military knowing they are pawns in somebody’s game. 
 

I’m not rooting for anybody to be killed, other than Putin himself. That fucking oaf needs a bullet in his brain before he starts bombing every cunt. 

[Waylander]

1 hour ago, Rick said:

I’m not rooting for anybody to be killed, other than Putin himself. That fucking oaf needs a bullet in his brain before he starts bombing every cunt. 

Having marched against the attack on Iraq close to 20 years ago and talking with members of the Respect group and Anti-War coalition  I am pretty sure 100s of millions probably wanted Bush to meet a quick and ugly demise as they bombed the water and energy infrastructure of Iraq.

They even used tanks to bomb the hotel where Western journalists were staying. 

The UN staff on the ground were also being attacked.

It was purely regime change yet they underestimated other players on the ground perhaps Russia will too.

Doesn't make this right yet seems to be an ugly cycle by which ever force thinks they can get away with it and normal people in the wrong place pay the price. 

 

[Rick]

@Waylander Ofcourse, any of these world “leaders” who commit these sort of acts need put away. Won’t hear me defending any of them. 

[Coma+]

19 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

If Russia's economy keeps crumbling, he's the more money his oligarchs lose, and the more likely it is that someone in Putin's inner circle is more motivated to put a bullet in his head.

The Ides of March approacheth.  I think this is the best outcome for the world.  I'd like to think that those around him worry about setting the country back decades in foreign policy, economic potential, and human rights, not just the size of their wallets.

Edited March 2, 2022 by Coma

[Coma+]

11 hours ago, Aladdin said:

Ah man !

I'm so proud.  From Trump to this guy.  

[RandoEFC+]

What I do find a bit nutty is that Putin's "offer" to his loyalists and his people seems to be that Russia can be a proud, powerful and formidable nation but also reap the benefits of Western life that the old Soviet Union rejected. He's spent years accepting forms of integration and even using them as a tool to consolidate his power. Now that his end-game seems to be... whatever this is, the only way he can achieve it is by persisting with this war and allowing Russia to regress to an isolated country that can no longer enjoy said benefits.

If you're one of Putin's oligarchs and one of the key reasons you support his Presidency is that you get to enjoy all that Europe has to offer in terms of business opportunities, sports washing and advertising opportunities, nice holidays, etc. without answering too many difficult questions at home so long as you share your riches with him, why would he retain your support if his actions now result in you losing all of those privileges that were compensation for your support in the first place? Of course, there's the small issue that the wrong move at the wrong time books you a one-way ticket to Novichok Avenue, but if he loses enough support from his inner circle, he can't just imprison all of them and carry on as if nothing has changed.

[Stan]

Just read that primary school children in Russia were arrested for laying flowers and placards stating 'no to war' outside the Ukrainian embassy in Moscow. 

Fucked up from Russia.