Russia and Ukraine

[Machado]

Some of the sanctions are going too far as western based companies are jumping on canceling Russia like they would jump on any other lowest common denominator cause.

The sanctions at some point might end up being unfavorable to the initial purpose of hurting Putin and people close to him as they could make the regular Russian angrier at the "west" than Putin himself. The state propaganda machine will make sure to spread how that is the general position.

[Mel81x+]

7 hours ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Every clip I've ever seen of Indian news makes it look completely unwatchable.

There are always at least 3 heads on the screen at any given time... sometimes way more. And the shouting and arguing is absolutely mental.

I used to like putting the TV on and letting the news run. I just read it now. That clip isn't even the "best" of it all.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Mel81x

[Happy Blue]

Shelling a nuclear power plant, this cunt is nuts!  ..if Putin doesn't allow inspectors and emergency service to go in we are going to be forced to act for the sake of Europe, it's time for special forces to take Putin out 

[Coma+]

17 hours ago, Viva la FCB said:

The funny thing for me is following this conversation through you quoting him. Hes literally the only person ive ever had to block on a forum, quality of life improvement etc. I quickly realized probably a year ago nothing he says is worth reading or responding too. Anyways sorry I just kind of enjoyed this read along 

Same here.  I was trying to figure out why I wasn't seeing his posts.  Oh right, blocked a long while ago .

[Waylander]

I have been looking at youtube news and discussion in particular this retired Major General GD from India.

He hammers the Western Nations saying they have abandoned Ukraine and says it is now too late to do anything as the Russians have the ports and control the borders.

He says the Ukrainians are using guerilla warfare and though this is brave it is foolhardy.

He adds the Russians started carefully though after attacks from Ukrainians have now gone to standard warfare which will mean surrounding the enemy and using bombing, missile attacks and blasting using tanks.

Insurgents will hide in cities so the cities will be attacked and reduced to rubble. Russia always allows a humanitarian corridor before the bombardment starts.

He thinks the Ukrainians should surrender to avoid the destruction of their cities and thinks there is no shame as they have been abandoned.

 Of course the Russians would certainly look to punish some of the leaders, unless a deal could be reached. 

 

 

[Fairy In Boots]

China backing Russia then? 
 

Cold War 2.0

[RandoEFC+]

31 minutes ago, Fairy In Boots said:

China backing Russia then? 
 

Cold War 2.0

I hadn't seen that. I came to post this though, there have been a few murmurings that the China backing Russia situation at least isn't a worst case scenario. I'll still post it. Appears to be somewhere between 0 and 100%...

Who knows what they'll do?

[RandoEFC+]

The refugee angle is also going to be really important going forward. Poland has a population of around 38m, so that many refugees would mark more than a 1% rise in their population. Already many of these refugees are heading on from there to Germany and the rest of Europe, so obviously Poland aren't permanently housing an extra 1-2% of their population, but it's still a strain in the short term and a sizeable operation for Europe going forward to accommodate these refugees as the numbers grow.

[...Dan]

I feel uneasy about everyone saying with such confidence that Putin has underestimated Ukraine and the support from the rest of the world, that his war isn't going to plan etc...isn't he a master of deception and misdirection? By acting like we know exactly what's going on in his head aren't we at risk of underestimating him? Surely we should be questioning his motives for every action instead of just taking it at face value?

I'm no expert on any of this but I watched a documentary called Hypernormalisation a few years ago which explained his tactics to confuse everyone, and to me he doesn't seem like a man who is as easy to read as people are making out.

 

[RandoEFC+]

9 minutes ago, ...Dan said:

I feel uneasy about everyone saying with such confidence that Putin has underestimated Ukraine and the support from the rest of the world, that his war isn't going to plan etc...isn't he a master of deception and misdirection? By acting like we know exactly what's going on in his head aren't we at risk of underestimating him? Surely we should be questioning his motives for every action instead of just taking it at face value?

I'm no expert on any of this but I watched a documentary called Hypernormalisation a few years ago which explained his tactics to confuse everyone, and to me he doesn't seem like a man who is as easy to read as people are making out.

 

I think he has underestimated the resistance he would meet in Ukraine, but that this isn't really a great thing because it means more aggression, more war, more deaths. I don't see how this could be a part of any plan, and I think that the "mastermind" perception of him is an overplayed trope at this point. He's smarter than the average world leader but because he's got a very different worldview and a very different moral compass to most of us, he is more dangerous and unpredictable, and that makes people more fearful of him. Still, he's just a man though, he makes mistakes, and I think he has made one in believing that this war would be easier than it has been. Of course, we should be questioning what he is trying to achieve. Well not us, but the leaders of our countries. There's no evidence to believe that it's anything other than the subjugation of Ukraine, though. It also isn't news to anyone in the US or Europe that he'll look to China and possibly India for alliance, and action has already been taken to try and drive a wedge between them. Whether that is successful in the long term remains to be seen.

I don't want to come across that we should underestimate him, but I don't think anyone is really. But I also don't think the hard evidence of what has happened in this war so far can be countered by "but it's Putin so this must all be deliberate and a part of his grand plan". Evidence of this may emerge, but it hasn't yet, and personally, I don't think it will. I think he's simply a man who has made a misjudgement. It doesn't mean I view him as any less dangerous. But every man that rises eventually falls and he will to. Perhaps this is the beginning of that, it's far too soon to say that with any hint of confidence though. Time will tell but I'm not really concerned that other world leaders are underestimating him.

[Happy Blue]

Which Countries Have Nuclear Weapons?

1.Russia — 6,257 (1,458 active, 3039 available, 1,760 retired)

2.United States — 5,550 (1,389 active, 2,361 available, 1,800 retired)

3. China — 350 available (actively expanding nuclear arsenal)

4. France — 290 available

5. United Kingdom — 225 available

6. Pakistan — 165 available

7. India — 156 available

8. Israel — 90 available

9. North Korea — 40-50 available (estimated)

Edited March 4, 2022 by Happy Blue

[OrangeKhrush]

15 minutes ago, Happy Blue said:

Which Countries Have Nuclear Weapons?

1.Russia — 6,257 (1,458 active, 3039 available, 1,760 retired)

2.United States — 5,550 (1,389 active, 2,361 available, 1,800 retired)

3. China — 350 available (actively expanding nuclear arsenal)

4. France — 290 available

5. United Kingdom — 225 available

6. Pakistan — 165 available

7. India — 156 available

8. Israel — 90 available

9. North Korea — 40-50 available (estimated)

scary list

[OrangeKhrush]

this invasion is nothing more than skirmishing.  they could have blitzkrieged and been done.   this is just piddly war

[Dr. Gonzo]

2 hours ago, Fairy In Boots said:

China backing Russia then? 
 

Cold War 2.0

I thought so too at first, but they've also taken some steps to isolate Russia economically (although I think China sees Russian isolation as useful - they've got a history of exploiting relatively isolated countries so that they can influence them; Russia seem ripe for Chinese exploitation, but it probably benefits China to let Russia feel more of the brunt of isolation at first so they are more desperate).

I think this more could be about not wanting to show the average Chinese football viewer that people in the UK can do public political protests.

But honestly, who knows with China. Economic dominance is their main goal - so I think them walking that thin line between supporting Russian economic isolation (at least temporarily) and appearing a bit softer on them than the West (with moves like this or abstaining to vote in the UN) probably lets them keep their options open.

[Dr. Gonzo]

5 minutes ago, OrangeKhrush said:

this invasion is nothing more than skirmishing.  they could have blitzkrieged and been done.   this is just piddly war

They tried a blitzkrieg style, but despite their air superiority they found Ukranian AA to be more effective than they thought while they're having difficulties moving in large armoured units. So blitzkrieg style attacks failed, that's why they're sieging cities and bombing civilian infrastructure. They wanted Ukraine to fall in 15 days according to Ukraine's Pravda, which reported on finding captured battle plans. That's evidently not going to happen, so they're trying to break the resolve of the Ukrainian populace by making the war as brutal for civilians as possible - like using vacuum bombs (which the US used on a remote taliban cave complex) to be able to clear out sheltering Ukrainians.

It's pretty fucking grim.

[OrangeKhrush]

3 minutes ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

They tried a blitzkrieg style, but despite their air superiority they found Ukranian AA to be more effective than they thought while they're having difficulties moving in large armoured units. So blitzkrieg style attacks failed, that's why they're sieging cities and bombing civilian infrastructure. They wanted Ukraine to fall in 15 days according to Ukraine's Pravda, which reported on finding captured battle plans. That's evidently not going to happen, so they're trying to break the resolve of the Ukrainian populace by making the war as brutal for civilians as possible - like using vacuum bombs (which the US used on a remote taliban cave complex) to be able to clear out sheltering Ukrainians.

It's pretty fucking grim.

if you really want to end it fast go for shock and awe, heavy bombardment of civilian towns, high speed mobile advances, sure you may lose 1% of your tanks but overwhelm the enemies ability yo defend it.   

it's why I stick with it being a half arsed skirmish

[Azeem]

Serb nationalists rejoicing and rooting for Russia. Putin's invasion will embold such nationalist groups.

[Waylander]

I read earlier a comparison with the US in Iraq where their military campaign changed as the conflict developed.

I think Putin forces will do the same, if they are hit by insurgents then they will use major force and so civilian areas will be devastated.

Some analysts are saying this already, at first surgical strikes then because of ambushes this is going to become a war of attrition which means major destruction.

Longer term think they will annex 60% of Ukraine just leaving the Western part independent.

 

 

[6666]

1 hour ago, Happy Blue said:

Which Countries Have Nuclear Weapons?

1.Russia — 6,257 (1,458 active, 3039 available, 1,760 retired)

2.United States — 5,550 (1,389 active, 2,361 available, 1,800 retired)

3. China — 350 available (actively expanding nuclear arsenal)

4. France — 290 available

5. United Kingdom — 225 available

6. Pakistan — 165 available

7. India — 156 available

8. Israel — 90 available

9. North Korea — 40-50 available (estimated)

Russia, America, and China being the top three isn't surprising (although I'd have thought China would actually have a lot more). Any country that's desperate to be seen as the #1 superpower is going to have a government full of cunts and will have enough firepower to represent their cuntishness.

[Dr. Gonzo]

4 minutes ago, 6666 said:

Russia, America, and China being the top three isn't surprising (although I'd have thought China would actually have a lot more). Any country that's desperate to be seen as the #1 superpower is going to have a government full of cunts and will have enough firepower to represent their cuntishness.

Russia and America having the most makes the most sense because of the cold war & the arms race. And while Russia and America were building their stockpiles, China was pretty far from a superpower and having to go through things like Mao's cultural revolution - but they're actively looking to expand their arsenal. I don't think Russia and the US are and there was talk (a long while ago) of both of them getting to agree to reduce their nuclear stockpiles. It'll never happen though, at least not any time soon after this.

[Devil-Dick Willie]

Doesn't really matter, with the numbers modern nukes put up, if Korea had the missile power to send them anywhere on earth, their 40-50 would end civilization as we know it and most life on earth post nuclear winter.  

[RandoEFC+]

5 hours ago, OrangeKhrush said:

if you really want to end it fast go for shock and awe, heavy bombardment of civilian towns, high speed mobile advances, sure you may lose 1% of your tanks but overwhelm the enemies ability yo defend it.   

it's why I stick with it being a half arsed skirmish

Isn't this exactly what they're doing? The high speed mobile advances haven't exactly gone to plan admittedly due to logistical problems and Ukrainian resistance but encircling and bombarding the big cities is exactly what's happening right now.

[El Profesor]

 

 

[Devil-Dick Willie]

3 hours ago, El Profesor said:

 

 

Outstanding. Articulately clarifies what Spike and I have preached more clumsily. 

 

Russia have been hammered for using vacuum bombs. Their use isn't in violation of international law, and the USA used them extensively in Iraq and Afghanistan, in both battles in Fallujah too(a major city). But now Russia might be using them it's the greatest crime imaginable.  

[Rick]

Can we not all just agree that whoever you are, using those weapons make you a massive piece of shit, full stop? 
 

Taking away the impact of Russia bombing civilians because other countries have done the same thing doesn’t sit right with me. They are all fucking evil for doing it.